BOJ Yen Printing on Overdrive

If 50 trillion yen isn't enough, then try 80 trillion yen.  And triple those ETF buys.  The BOJ has gotten backed into a corner, Abe and the BOJ have taken a page out of the Fed playbook and resorted to manipulation of their asset markets and currency to prosperity.  It will work, if your vision of prosperity are higher stocks and higher bonds, with a weaker currency.  If your vision of prosperity is actual increase in the quality of life for the average citizen, then it is a massive fail.

While this is great for the Nikkei, I don't see much benefit to massive BOJ printing except for those short the yen.  The market is at a point where you have shorts under extreme duress and any bit of supposedly good news brings out a lot of short covering.  This is a lot of short covering driving this gap up.  I don't believe it is much new long buying here.  With short covering, usually it happens before the market opens, and once the opening bell rings, you get the cash guys coming into take profits on this kind of news.  I am short the S&P here in the pre-market.  Looking for a selloff in the morning.

Post FOMC Selloff

We are getting the FOMC hangover selloff thanks to renewed worries in Europe, as Greek bond yields shoot up and Italian banks are getting sold heavily.  Everything is fine in the US, of course, it is just those PIIGS in Europe that are getting in the way.

It is amazing to see this US and European equity divergence just get bigger and bigger.  It is almost as if all the money devoted to equities is being hoarded into the S&P, at the expense of every other equity index in the world.  Eventually you would expect the US equities to get dragged down by the weakness abroad, but it isn't happening, except for a day here, a day there.

And Draghi's promises and actions still haven't satisfied the European investors.  Otherwise, you wouldn't be getting these big selloffs in Europe out of the blue, something you rarely see in the S&P.

S&P has nearly doubled in 5 years while the Eurostoxx 50 is up less than 10% over that time period.  It truly is remarkable how much the divergence is.  And most of the emerging markets are just as drastic a divergence.  It is the S&P 500 standing alone at the top, with very few able to follow.

The Fed surprised with the hawkish statement, and I was definitely surprised that they didn't mention any of the global growth weakness, but I guess they felt like S&P 500 had rallied enough and there was no need to use up bullets when S&P is almost at 2000.  I am only half kidding.  I would expect any selloff to be well supported around 1947 ES, or 1952 S&P.  Next week should be bullish for the market until at least Thursday.

Stronger than All Expectations

The S&P has done it again.  It has just made a mockery of any resistance levels and the rocket fueled rally continues.  You figure that the market would take a rest after such an explosive rally over the past few days, and it doesn't.  It just keeps powering higher.  Now the next hurdle is the July highs at SPX 1990 set before we took a sharp dip in August.  But that is only a few points away, so not much more to go.  And then the psychological 2000 barrier again.  Beyond that, it is new all time highs.

With the favorable seasonal factors and especially the strength of this V bounce, I would lean towards another break of the all time highs before the end of the year.  With lower oil prices and the stronger dollar, the consumer should be pumped up for Christmas, and that should help fuel the end of year rally.

It is definitely frustrating time for bears, and not easy to make money unless you are a bull in this market, except for the very brief moments of selling that don't last more than a couple weeks anyway.

With the FOMC meeting upon us, I do believe we have finally reached a level that will pause this market for a few days.  Plus, the market is way overbought short term, and will have trouble blasting through more resistance levels without a pause.  But you can never say never to this bull market.  It has made skeptics look like idiots over and over again.

1970 Resistance

There is a fair amount of resistance at the SPX 1970 level, where we rallied to and failed in early October.  It is a good risk reward to take a short term short at those levels, shorting the Eurostoxx as a proxy for shorting the S&P.  I would be loathe to outright short the S&P, because there are other markets that fall much more during weakness.  Or better yet, just go long Treasuries.  I am still long Treasuries from higher levels but with my view on the current equity market, I will hold on to them until we get to lower levels on S&P, around 1920.

With the eagerness to buy dips by the investor community, you have front run a lot of the snapback rally from the dip.  For the next few days, with the FOMC coming up, it could set up a disappointment if QE is not extended, even though QE ending is consensus.  Hopefully the Ebola excuses for selloffs will dissipate and we can focus on real reasons for strength and weakness.  Mass hysteria knows no bounds, as everyone seems to be like cattle fed GMO corn, but this time, it is news force fed to induce fear or relief that Ebola is not a crisis.

Anyway, short term bearish on the market for the next few days.

Another V Bottom

The market continues its past V bottom tendencies.  This is quite the rip higher over a week.  We've gone up 140 S&P points from bottom to top over 6 trading sessions.   That is 7%.  Market continues to confound bears, including me, with its relentless bounces off oversold conditions.  We've gone through most of the resistance barriers, such as SPX 1880, 1905, and 1935.  Now the next area of resistance is 1960 to 1970, which is an extremely strong area of resistance, as that is where we last rallied on the Fed dovish minutes before starting to plummet.

One thing that is different about this V bottom was that many retail traders were actually bullish while buying this dip, which is a bit unusual.  Usually retail gets scared by these dips, but they've seen these V bottoms so many times that they felt like this was going to be just another one.  And they were right.  To me, retail feeling confident buying dips is a warning sign that the market is complacent.  The AAII sentiment numbers were quite bullish for this week, which syncs with the anecdotal evidence I see among investors.  I know that sounds crazy when you see the VIX spike to over 30, but it was hedge funds that were caught off guard and reducing risk all at the same time that caused that, not a general sense of panic and fear.

The FOMC meeting is next Wednesday, and the market should be well protected from any meaningful downside till then.  It is rare to see the market fall apart right before a FOMC meeting where Yellen is expected to be dovish because the S&P went down.  Yes, I am being serious.  The Fed are stock jockeys, and take their biggest economic cues from the stock market.

Probably grind higher into SPX 1960-1970 area by the time FOMC Wednesday comes around.  Any minor downdrafts on Ebola news is a buying opportunity.

Blog Break

Last week was exhausting, and I expect muted volatility over the next few days.  I am long Treasuries for a swing trade.  Be back later in the week.

Big Gap Ups and Gap Downs

Looking at past historical data for S&P futures, the times when you have two straight gap downs of over 1% followed by a gap up of over 1%, you see a list of time periods populated by bear markets.  In particular, many of these instances occurred in 2008, 2009, and 2011.  This market has totally changed regimes from a benign aging bull market to a market entering a transition from up market to down market.  This is no ordinary pullback, like you had in 2012, 2013, and earlier this year.  I don't remember any of those corrections with this kind of intraday volatility.  The VIX proves that point, as we haven't seen these kind of VIX readings since 2011.  We never got over a 22 on the VIX since the beginning of 2013.  Even during the taper tantrum in June 2013, VIX could only get up to a 22, and that was a spike reading.  We spiked above 30 on the VIX this time around.

Something is quite different about this pullback.  I was shocked to find out that the AAII sentiment readings showed more bulls than last week even though the market has plummeted over that time period.  It seems retail investors view this as a buying opportunity.  I keep seeing that in the Twitter streams.  The market has done its job of fooling the majority most of the time.  It went much higher than anyone expected, and kept teasing bears with quick pullbacks, which only led to quick rebounds.  US equities have gotten so high that even a dip of 8 percent leaves the market overvalued, but looking like a bargain to the retail investor.

How is it that when the market first reached 1880, it was considered overextended earlier this year, but now that the market went over 2000, and pulled back to 1880, it is considered a bargain.  Over those 6 months, there has been no earnings growth.

This market feels like a 2007 and 2011 mixed together.  2007 in that it is an overvalued aging bull market that is several years old.  2011 in that we're seeing a huge drop in bond yields along with the end of QE.  I have a hard time picturing this pullback resolving itself by going straight up in V like fashion like you saw in 2013 and earlier this year.  I see more of a mild version of a 2011 scenario, where you get choppy trading in a range, for several weeks.

The basic game plan is to sell the rips for the rest of the month.  Range should be around SPX 1800 to 1890.  We are getting close to the top of the range here.  We may have a bit more upside but I wouldn't try to play long for those last 10 points.

Market Waits for No One

There goes my 2015 playbook.  The bond bus has left the station.  I had it all mapped out in my head.  We were going to get one last final blowoff top in US stocks and it would be the most exquisite opportunity to get long bonds and short stocks since 2007.  Well, that didn't quite pan out.  What I was thinking was an early 2015 story has been pushed forward into now.  There is no turning back.  The genie is out of the bottle.

The charade of higher prices begetting higher prices, performance chasing, TINA, and desperate corporations trying to pump up their stock to maintain earnings growth is over.  I hear the usual explanations about there being an absence of enthusiasm at the top last month, and in July, about people hating this stock market.  Well, I was there in 2007, there wasn't a lot of enthusiasm for stocks as we were hitting the top in the early summer.  In fact, back then, everyone was into housing, not the stock market.   It doesn't require enthusiasm like a 1929 or 2000 to get a big bear market.  We got one in 2007-2008 without enthusiasm at the top.

I've learned a few lessons in my time trading.  One of the most important ones is that you can't predict both timing and price for entry, so you better choose one or the other.  I used to believe that price was everything, that if you get in at a good price, it covers for a lot of bad timing and some near term drawdowns.  I've changed my view on that, because holding through a near term drawdown wears down the psyche, which can cause bad trading.  Now I am more flexible in terms of exchanging a better price entry for a higher degree of certainty of a move happening within a shorter term time frame.

It is in that view that I believe that this bond rally will have serious legs over the next few months.  I can imagine a 1.40% 10 year yield in 2015, or perhaps even lower.  The reason I have such a high degree of conviction on this play is because we've already been to those levels before, when the recovery was less mature, and we were still in an upward trajectory.  Now when you are facing a potential recession, near the end of an economic recovery, you can get explosive moves lower in yields, something like you are seeing with the German Bund, where 10 year yields are at 0.77%.  This is because the central banks are willing to take drastic measures to support the economy, and their best way to do that is to buy bonds and lower yields.  QE4 is not so far away.  ZIRP forever.

The flash crash up in bond prices yesterday was historic.  Too many historic moves are happening over the past few years.  We had a flash crash down in stocks just 4 years.  We've had various flash crash type moves in gold and copper in the past couple of years.  The algos are relentless, and it exacerbates volatility, but usually towards the pain trade side, the side where most speculators get killed.  That is obviously an up move in bonds.

I missed much of the move lower in yields this year, in the 2nd half, although I nailed a big portion in the spring time.  I kept thinking that bond holders would panic as we got into 2015, thinking a rate hike was imminent.  I was completely wrong on that.  However, if there is money to be made, I will make the trade, even if its not at the best possible price I could have entered at.  That trade is to get long Treasuries.

The stock market is topped out, but I will still try to play for bounces, because other people are.  That means they will be willing to buy for a trade, but not for an investment.  Which leads to short 1 day bounces that can't even last into the next morning, like you have from yesterday to today.  Those looking for those common V shaped 10 days straight up rallies will be disappointed.

It is a different market now, one where bonds are now getting respect, since they've been the Rodney Dangerfield of the financial community for over a year now.  Stocks are not a STFR, not yet, but bonds are definitely a BTFD, without a doubt.  BTFD has left the building.  The NYSE building.  It has moved over to the Treasury pits.

Looking for reflexive buying in the morning on the big gap down near strong support levels, around the April lows.  After that, we may get a weak 2nd half of the day, as opex forces kick in on lower prices.

V Bottom?

So now we got the monster V bottom intraday today, is it the all clear to get long and strong for the move back to all time highs?  As I have mentioned earlier, this Ebola scare is a big time red herring, making those contrarians feel comfortable buying here because of course, market shouldn't be down so big on such news.

But what is making me cautious is that we went down in a straight line 150 SPX points in a week, if you count the intraday high after the Fed minutes last Wednesday at ES 1964, and the low intraday today at ES 1813.  And really there was no significant reason for it.  I heard global growth scare, bad European data, end of QE, and Ebola.  But perhaps most concerning is that with high yield bonds acting very weak this month, and corporate yield spreads rising, the borrow to spend on stock buyback plans will be more difficult and expensive to execute.  That has been a lynch pin for this stock market rally.

And really, the Fed is on the sideline here for a while, because they look like complete market slaves if they suddenly panic and restart QE because the stock market is going down.  So no emergency Fed plans until things get even worse.  And this market has been reliant on the Fed to bail it out for every stock market swoon since Greenspan panic lowered interest rates in October 1998.

BTW, in the post cash close trading in futures, ES went down 11 points in 15 minutes, and VIX futures went up from 21.8 to 23.9 in the same 15 minutes, from 4:00 PM ET to 4:15 PM ET.  That is an insane move, and not a sign of a bottom.  We are on day 18 of the pullback.  Remember, many of these long pullbacks last 22 trading days, or about 1 full month of trading.  We still have another few days to go.

Ebola Fears

This is now turning into an Ebola selloff.  The fear of uncertainty over Ebola and how it is expanding, although only 2 people infected so far, is driving the selling.  It is a bit irrational, but when the selling avalanche arrives, it rolls on until all the sell stops are hit, panic sellers taken out, and we reach a level where buyers are willing to step in for value.
We are getting very close to that value buyer stepping in, as the market is coming up on SPX 1850 support.  Yesterday, even as the market was rallying, it felt more like eager bottom pickers stepping in rather than motivated buyers will to take long term positions.  Thus, you have the daily afternoon selloff which spoiled the bottom pickers' plans.  After the carnage over the past few days, a gap down on Ebola fears is a gap down to buy.  You have the Ebola theme stocks, LAKE, APT, etc. gapping up on the Ebola news.

It is a big red herring, but it is convenient for the headlines to blame the selling on Ebola.  But the real factors are options expiration related, as the delta hedgers, and the short put crowd have to scramble to reduce risk and sell futures to hedge.  That makes it difficult for a sustained rally this week, due to opex.  Once we get past Friday, you will see a market that is no longer burdened by put sellers capitulating and we should embark on a healthy rebound.  Until then, sell the rallies, and only buy big dips.  Sell ES 1880, buy ES 1860 for the day.

Bloodsport

This market is drawing blood.  You are not getting the little moves that were painless before.  Now you are taking out big chunks in a matter of an hour.  These aren't paper cuts.  They are shotgun wounds to the leg, forearm, and if we break 1850, to the heart.  Yesterday, we dropped 20 points in a hour.  Same thing happened on Friday.  You are taking out some aggressive longs in the process.  This is turning into a different beast.  It must be respected.  For the next few days, it will not be your good old BTFD market.  It will be a hyper version of a STFR market, with bounces dying out quickly.

After looking at the price action, reading the news, feeling the market, we need more downside action before we can get a sustained bounce.  The selling is so sustained and pernicious that you have to wonder how this could happen just because of Ebola.  Of course, that is a red herring.  A market that goes down on no significant news is a market that is very weak.

I am not calling for an end to the bull market.  I don't believe QE has as much of an effect on the stock market anymore.  It is a convenient excuse for the hard to explain strength of the market since 2009.  When you take out supply like corporations have done for the last several years, with M&A thrown in, you have a shortage of stocks relative to the demand.

But this pullback cycle looks like a 22 day whopper, not the 13 day one that is more common.  You don't get 3 cascade down days without some serious motivated sellers.  A bit panicky, but there is a lot behind this down move.  We are on day 17 of the pullback, so I expect this to be over in a week.  However, during the next few days, with options expiration and the delta hedging selling forces at work as the market heads lower, you can get a move down to monster support at SPX 1850.  That is just gigantic support that the bulls will fight to the death to hold.  I expect it to.

I sold ES on the pop in premarket, looking to get back in lower.  Need to microtrade this beast to stay alive on the long side.  Once we get to close to ES 1850, no more microtrading, I will be playing long for keeps and looking for the big move back higher.

Liquidation

That was a complete wipe out in the final hour.  Back to back to back panic days in the closing hour.  You don't see that too often.  It is now turning into risk management mode for the funds, and with the increased volatility, they are reducing long positions.  That is how you get these tidal waves of selling.  We are very close to what I view as extremely strong support in SPX 1855-1860 area, which is around ES 1850-1855.  There is not much downside left unless we have an outright stock market crash.  Reduced some of the long position in ES to manage risk, but still long.

Ebola Crisis

Is an Ebola outbreak taking down this stock market?  If you read the news headlines, you would think that Ebola is taking down the stock market.  Well, Europe had other ideas, as we rallied huge off the European open to current levels in the futures.  In the overnight session, you had true panic and fear as hedgers and those long took down exposure, hedged, or just shorted into the hole hoping not to lose more money.  Often times the scariest moments occur in the overnight session, when there is limited liquidity, and futures are falling through the floor.

I am still long ES, and will hold it into at least Tuesday.  The strong recover in Europe, and the panicky Ebola headlines makes me feel like we put in a short term bottom overnight.  However, I don't think we are out of the woods.  We should have one last liquidation sale later in the week.

Scary

This is turning scary.  The market feels like it has no bottom.  The VIX is shooting through the roof, blasting through 20 with ease, closing at 21.24.  That is the highest VIX close since February 3, when we closed at 21.44.  That happened to be the bottom of that selloff.  In 2013, we got as high as 21.91 on the VIX during the taper tantrum.

I have a long ES position, underwater.  Today's action feels capitulatory, but we'll have to see how traders react to these levels on Monday.  Around SPX 1900, we are near the August lows, so there will be some natural dip buyers in that area.  We also have strong support in the SPX 1880-1890 area.

After the cash close, we got a further dump in the S&P futures, which strongly indicates panic hedging into the weekend after a nasty down day.  Close to a bottom, but I may be off by 20 points.  Definitely not a time to get too aggressive, either long or short.

Europe Weakness

Europe is spoiling the Fed party.  Just as Janet Yellen is refilling the punch bowl, Draghi is MIA as Europe goes into recession.  Yesterday was a massive move on a dovish Fed.  I cannot say its a game changer, because I expected that from this Fed, and it didn't surprise me, but so many were leaning in one direction, the slightest bit of good news was like rocket fuel, squeezing the shorts and causing underinvested fund managers to add long exposure.  

This morning, we are greeted with a massive selloff from the open in Europe, as all the Fed minutes gains for the Eurostoxx has been erased, and then some.  I am still a believer in this bull market, but how much we bounce will depend on how we trade over the next few days.  If we can keep going up despite Europe, that bodes well for the remainder of the year.  If we struggle to blast through SPX 1970-1980, that will be a worrisome sign.

Will Get Long

The market is offering another buy the dip opportunity, which I somewhat expected but wasn't sure it would come.  Look at these price levels as a gift to get long US equities.  I am extremely bullish at these levels, and will look to get long ES between 1925 and 1928, near the lows of the overnight session.

We are on day 13 of the selloff, that began on Monday September 22.  For those that remember, I wrote a piece about pullback cycles, where I found that 13 days is a common length for many pullbacks.  There is a full moon and lunar eclipse.  The bears are growling.  The BTFD moment is here.  Ignore the doubters, they have been wrong for 5 years, and counting.  When they change their tune, and become BTFD specialists, I will worry.  We are definitely not there yet.  We keep getting these minor pullbacks, that last 2 or so weeks, and the bears come out of the woods and try to scare everyone out of their stocks.

Looking for a possible V bottom today as we get a little panicky trade ahead of the FOMC minutes, where I will look to scoop up stocks.

Almost Time for BTFD

We are getting to a strong support area around ES 1933, which is SPX 1940.  We could have one last flush out to the lows that we saw last week around ES 1920.  But either way, we are very late in the selloff and we can liftoff higher any day now.  So you have to get ready to BTFD when the opportunity presents itself.

There were some fairly scary headlines from Europe, with German Industrial Production plunging, much of it was likely due to Russia.  The European stock indices got slaughtered, and that index is also nearing very strong support areas from the summer.

I am waiting for one last push lower, hopefully to time it better than the last dip buy, which was profitable, but I got in too early and had to take some heat on the trade.

By the end of the week, the storm should be over and we should be back to our normally scheduled programming of slow grind higher with low volatility.

S&P Foils Doubters Again

S&P 500 is the most bullish market in the world.  You cannot underestimate the strength of this index.  It is the UPOD of the financial markets.  Underpromise, Overdeliver.  That is why I went long ES last week, and even with a bad long entry last week, in just a few days, the position is well in the green, and I closed it out this morning.

It is almost like a video recorder, this market.  You can replay February, April, August, and now October and you pretty much get the same show.  The market dips, people get fearful thinking we've broken important technical levels, only to see the market do a V bottom and leave behind the doubters in the dust.

Last week was the Ebola bottom, and it amazes me how those in the financial markets get into a frenzy repeatedly over meaningless news.  In fact, I was glad to see those Ebola headlines, because I knew the selling was irrational.  Also anytime you have paper napkins chartists on CNBC espouse about broken technical levels, you know a bottom is almost at hand.

I am begging for a pullback now that I have sold, hoping to buy again, around ES 1935, and if I have the good fortune of being given that opportunity, I plan on riding it to ES 1992.

Scary Moment

Yesterday, for the first time in quite a while, I had flashes of that last scary moment.  Yes, the flash crash.  It was a day I remember vividly, because I was long ES as the market was plunging the depths.  I took a hit that day, and that experience was seered into my brain.  Yesterday, in the middle of the day, after a weak day previously, it was normal to expect some chop and a bounce, but we got a chop and a plunge.  It was quite the vicious plunge because we went down about 10 straight points on ES within a few minutes.

I am sure there were a bunch of stop orders set off and risk management departments reducing risk exposure.  Oddly enough, the VIX didn't spike much.  In fact, the VIX has actually been lagging the last two days.  Previously it was acting quite strong, now, its acting quite weak relative to the S&P movements.  It does tell me that those who want put protection have mostly bought it, and aren't willing to pay up much for it any longer.  As I stated before, volatility has been overpriced for quite some time, and only recently has it actually paid off.

Nonfarm payrolls should be a non-issue, it hasn't really mattered for stocks for the past year or so.  ECB did what I expected of them, yet for some reason, a bunch of hopeful longs in Europe thought they would launch full blown QE.  That is not going to happen for a while.

We got the V bottom flush out that I was looking for, unfortunately it was a day later than expected.  However, the long side seems to always be forgiving to dip buyers.  I am waiting for higher prices to unload my long inventory, perhaps on Monday.

Middle of the Storm

You cannot expect to get the perfect entry.  There will be times when you have to accept that there will be some heat taken on the trade if the timing is a bit off.  But with the long side, even if you are a bit early, it is much more forgiving for those that can take a small drawdown.

This bull market has been marked by its resilience, and the skepticism that it draws.  I have never seen a more hated bull market.  It doesn't mean we won't go down, but it tells me that stocks are in the hands of strong believers, and we've shaken out the weak hands over the past 2 weeks.

The bears are out in droves as we broke the 100 day moving average.  All of a sudden, everyone is a technician.  And of course there is the Ebola crisis, just for the extra kick of fear.  Everyone wants to buy the dip until it arrives.  The dip is here.

In Too Early

Well, I was a bit of an eager beaver there buying in the 1953-1955 area on ES.  Definitely taking heat on the position but like the risk/reward at these levels.  Like even more the bearish sentiment that I am hearing on CNBC, with Ebola crisis and all.  Could face a bit of turbulence for the next few days, for those in cash, I would use the volatility to find entry points to get long on those dips.  The blue light special shouldn't last for more than a few days.

Long ES

Got long a bit early this morning on the ES, buying in the 1953-1955 area, but overall, feel like a good enough entry point to weather any further storms before the move back higher.  Noticed the VIX is acting fairly weak for such a move down this morning, looks like capitulation in the Treasury market, with a huge short squeeze higher.

We may get a couple more tests of ES 1945-1950 area, and a bit more volatility, but the key will be to just hang on until the storm passes.

Ebola Bottom?

The bears are throwing everything they can at this market.  They brought out another card yesterday, the Ebola card.  I thought I had seen every odd reason to sell, but now the latest scare is Ebola in the US.  It helped to drop the futures overnight after the US cash close.  The market has been quite resilient, but the bounces are getting weaker, and we are hanging around closer to strong support at SPX 1960.

One of the relative indicators I like to see is how VIX is performing relatively to the S&P.  If the VIX doesn't drop much while the S&P bounces, it tells you there is still demand for protection and people are still adding hedges.  That tells me we still have more selling pressure to come, because until the put buyers go away, we aren't going to see a big bounce.

Today is the first day of the month, which usually brings in some automatic stock allocation money coming in during the day.  Once this buying is satiated, I expect continuation of the downtrend.  We may break 1960 marginally, but that will be a good risk/reward buy area.