Using the Topspin Forehand

It is hard to make money shorting the indices unless you have very good timing.  But is not hard to make money going long the indices even if you have bad timing.  That is the market environment that we are in.  It feels quite repetitive, but you can make money both long and short, its just that the margin for error for going long is much greater than that for going short.

It is like hitting a forehand without topspin, sure if you hit it perfect, it will fall in, but if you use topspin, it is much more likely to fall in bounds.  Going short is like hitting a forehand without topspin, hoping it goes in.  Going long is the topspin forehand.  Why do you think Rafael Nadal makes so few unforced errors?  Its because he uses a ton of topspin and his balls don't go flying out of bounds very often.

Well, I just am very reluctant to short at this stage of the market.  Even if I feel like we will pull back, it is not the high percentage play.  The high percentage play is to wait for the dip and buy.  Well, we are dipping, and I am waiting for just a slightly bigger dip and I will be buying with both hands.  Still waiting for SPX 1950 to 1960 for an exquisite dip buying opportunity.

The FOMC forward guidance language change and the Alibaba IPO have combined to make this market heavy.  It shouldn't last too long.  I give it until the end of the month, at the most.  We should bounce back easily once the uncertainties are gone.