Friday, August 8, 2014

Day Late Dollar Short

Got a little too excited looking for capitulation today, shorting at ES 1914 and looking for a move back down to 1905.  Took a loss on the short and now will look at higher levels for a re-short.  If that was the end of the pullback, I would be shocked.  Still looking for a drop back down to 1880, but we'll probably have to consolidate this range here, which is 1891 to 1936 (expecting an up move to 1936 on Monday) for a few days before we make the final push lower.

Dip buyers will not go away easily, and they feel emboldened now that they have the V reversal off of the overnight low at 1891.  Will wait for them to overreach on the upside on Monday and take a swing short, looking for a move back down to 1895 late next week.

P.S. - They don't make it easy.  Thought we would easily close above ES 1924 but the big sell orders at the cash close into the futures 4:15 PM close have taken us right back down to 50/50 territory at 1923.50.  Staying above 1924, and we have room to run to 1936, staying below 1924, and we are right at the top of the new range and we'll just selloff on Monday.  Considering we squeezed higher on Russian troops leaving border of Ukraine, I am leaning towards the second scenario, sell off on Monday back down to 1900.

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