Thursday, May 1, 2014

Good Jobs Number

Only one big event left this week and that is the nonfarm payrolls number.  Based on the BLS lowballing the jobs number for the past 4 months, expecting them to come out with some ridiculously high number that will cause a reflexive move up in equities and down in bonds.  I am not putting any money on this idea, but odds are probably 2 to 1 that we get a NFP beat.  

We are back at the top of the range here: 1840 to 1880.  Treasuries have been extremely strong as we cannot get a selloff that sticks, and we bounce back with ease.  With Spanish and Italian 10 years only 35 to 40 bps above Treasuries, you have a valuation mismatch.  10 yr Treasuries are a relative bargain at 2.65%.  

Waiting to establish a long position in bonds after hopefully a good jobs number tomorrow.  If we get a consensus or below consensus number, will have to scramble and pay up to buy.  Either good or bad number, expecting to get long bonds on Friday.

2 comments:

andrewtoney said...

Mismatch? You see spread between 10 Yr Us Treasury Yield and Italian equivalent Btp is far far negative at historical level.

Market Owl said...

I don't know exactly what you mean, but yes, for the past 3 years, Italian bonds are expensive compared to US Treasuries. But if you look back over the past 15 years, Italian bonds actually traded at lower yields than Treasuries for a long period.