Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Bracing for September

There is shroud hanging over this market, worrying about Fed tapering, Syria, upcoming debates over the budget and the debt ceiling, etc.  It has weighed down this market since August 15 when market participants started to price in some of the upcoming events.  I was feeling quite bearish at the time, if you look back at some of the tweets during my blog break.

I expected something more than what we have gotten so far, the reaction to all the potential negative catalysts has been tamer than I expected.  So while I initially felt like 1560 was a lock when we had that first move down to 1650, I no longer think that way.  I am not as bearish about this market due to its resilience in the face of bearish headlines.  Yes, we are making lower lows but nothing that usually forewarn of a coming waterfall decline. 

So while we have our relief gap up on the non attack of Syria, it should not last for more than a couple of days before the taper worries resurface and Congress returns to vote on Syria and start preliminary rhetoric on budget deals and debt ceiling.  So there are still negative catalysts out there that should give us one more wave lower, down to about 1600.  But I just don't see this market going below that level this year.  I am expecting a fairly shallow, but messy correction (more U than V bottom) before we go back above 1700.  This market will not die easily, and we should be prepared to buy after the next wave lower. 

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