Monday, July 8, 2013

Grind Higher

We are on the upslope of the V.  The V bottom on June 24.  These V bottoms usually take about 4 to 6 weeks to play out to completion, right now we are just at 2 weeks.  So we have about 2 to 4 weeks of this uptrend left.  I am leaning on the beginning of August as a potential top. 

The area to watch for a potential stall point is SPX 1650 to 1660.  So most of the upside has been made off this bottom.  But at the same time, I don't expect to see much downside.  1600 should provide a sturdy floor to this market, if we do have a pullback. 

In general, the rise in yields will limit the extent of the equity rally, as well as the expected Fed  taper in September.  Expect lower volatility and boring trading in July, as we will be climbing the wall of worry.

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