Friday, April 19, 2013

Close to a Low

We are in a consolidation phase, and at the lower end of the range.  It looks like the Chinese market has bottomed, and Europe is very oversold.  Also, we've had disappointing earnings so far in tech, as expected, so the market has discounted much of this weakness.

AAPL under 400 is getting the bulls nervous.  I never believed in AAPL, and I still don't, but it is no longer a sure fire short.  It is getting closer to a tradeable buy around 360.  I expect their earnings to disappoint again, and that should be near the bottom.  AAPL still has a couple of short squeezer catalysts lined up in the coming months.  A probable special cash dividend and the launch of a new IPhone.  I am going to look to enter longs very soon. 


MM111 said...

You dont think 1540 was the bottom then?

Market Owl said...

I do think 1540 is close to a bottom, I don't see a move below 1530 for sure. We shook out a lot of weak hands. At the same time, I am much less confident going long now than I did earlier in the year. The action is more two sided, not so favorable for bulls. But definitely not eager to short either. A do nothing market except for specific stock situations.