The eager beavers at the Fed are chomping at the bit to print more money. It is what they do. And they act as if they are doing us favors and saving the world economy. How many PhDs do you need to press the print button? QE3 will not increase earnings for corporations, unless they print so much money that you will see $150 oil, and you can add a 1.5x to everything, asset AND consumer prices included. The problem I have with the market is not the economy, but the valuation relative to earnings growth. Earnings growth is just not there, but we're still priced at levels that seem rich considering the low growth environment and already high profit margins.
As for the market, I see a pullback that is imminent, one that should knock out some of the complacency in this market. But I still expect higher highs and higher lows for at least the next few weeks, due to the anticipation for QE3 and ECB bond buying. Until then, we'll have more boring, low volatility trading.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
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