It is going to get ugly soon. I was too optimistic. And, I'm usually too pessimistic. That is how bad the situation is for the bulls. 1150 will likely be broken, and with that, a likely trip back down to 1120, where we had numerous bottoms in August and September. I will not be buying on Wednesday unless we get down to 1120.
Why do I say this? First, we've been down for 5 straight days, and you still had a lot of call activity. It is signaling there are still many looking to buy the dip. And its unusual, because you would see a lot more put volume being down 70 points in 5 days. China is turning into an absolute post real estate bubble mess, and no one is talking about it because Europe is itself imploding. The weakest equity markets right now are in Asia, not Europe. Now China is readying to begin interest rate cuts, that is not the time you want to buy Chinese stocks.
I missed a golden short opportunity at the beginning of last week, lots of regret because I've been looking for it for the past 3 weeks. But with that said, I don't want to do something else I regret by buying too early. I will wait for the panic to set in. We are far from that, and I'm 90% sure that we'll get it within a week.
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2 comments:
There was alot of put volume last week and half prior to Friday. Index call buying Friday and Monday.
The Vix tells us all we need to know. We're just getting started.
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