Friday, April 29, 2011

Tops Take Longer

There is a reason that I am not in a rush to get short. First, we don't have the price action which speaks to a turn. We only go up. Usually volatility precedes a turn, even at the top. There just hasn't been enough intraday volatility. Second, tops don't happen right away after we just had a washout with the US downgrade by S&P. Especially in a bull market. Tops take time to form. Bottoms are points. We are slowly getting there, but I'd like to see a few down 1% and up 1% days thrown in before I get more confident we've reached a top.

Looking for early weakness and a gap fill in the morning and from there narrow range trading.

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