Thursday, October 28, 2010

Unusual Weakness

The market is acting unusually weak despite the weak dollar today and strong jobless claims number.  This is just a guess, but it seems like funds want to pare down the risk on their books for the end of the month and ahead of QE2.  It would not surprise me to see us keep going lower for most of the day, but I'm not putting any money on it. 

Also, I've been rethinking what happens after the FOMC meeting, and I am less bearish about the post FOMC trade than before.  It seems like the uncertainty and the fear of a sell the news reaction is in the current prices.  That doesn't make me bullish for the post FOMC trade, but it just makes it harder to guess what's going to happen.  Nothing easy in this market with much of the dumb money gone. 

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