Thursday, July 8, 2010

Opposite of 2009

I've been thinking about this market and how different things are from 2009.   Back then, the rally had no fundamentals behind it but liquidity and earnings shortfalls were feared.  Now we've got a situation where earnings are no longer feared and embraced as a potential positive catalyst.

At the time, there was never any good reason for the rally last year.  We only found out later after much higher prices the reason for it.  It was the huge amount of inventory restocking and surging earnings.

I wonder if traders looking at the current fundamentals/earnings as a reason to buy this market will find out later the reason for the selling.  Probably only after we are trading at lower prices.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Right now the market is being driven by index futures and ETFs, and stocks are a lot more closely correlated than they should be. If investors focused a little more on fundamentals, health care stocks would go up and finance and consumer discretionary would go down.