Friday, January 28, 2011
Quite a Selloff
I am impressed by the bears for today. This selloff came out of the blue. I guess there are some riots in Egypt but that was going on when the ES was at 1298. It seems more like the market hitting strong resistance around 1300 on SPX and the buyers are less eager than before. It doesn't mean we'll crash down, because there are dip buyers underneath. There are strong buyers around 1270, and strong sellers around 1300. I don't expect much follow through selling next week.
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6 comments:
This one can't be fixed by Ben and $600bn nor the Europeans... this won't fix over the weekend like recent crisis, have been long and now getting out. Would short XOM,, 25% of production in Middle East, big stake is Saudi Refinery that is going to have fun shipping products now.. report Monday just below a fib... overbought for months. Oh and when the King Dies in Saudi read here http://criticalppp.com/archives/30509
XOM, implied vol on Feb 80 puts at 17.5 looks too low
Who cares about Egypt. No one cared until the ES started dropping! The riots were happening when the ES was at 1298. Egypt is way overblown, they have no oil, and there is no way they are going to shut down the Suez Canal. Any trades based off Middle East oil disruptions will be losing trades.
buy India then if you think oil is rubbish
Just in interest of disclosure I am v short Exxon, but short India, v Long Russia, V Long Japan but short Yen, Short Korea, Short China, Long Gold and Gold Miners... but for now I have puts up to my eyeballs for shorting as vol too cheap... but less so after today.
Also I concede you needed to be positioned before this to be safe.. but I am
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