This is a totally different market than the one we are used to from the past 2 years. The volatility will be reduced and it will be frustrating for those relying on sentiment to time the market. The main reason for this is the lack of retail participation in the market. You just don't see the fund flows into the market which mark a long lasting top. We saw that in January and April of 2010.
The improvement that we'll likely see in the jobs picture will drive continued equity strength. The lack of jobs was the main thing holding back the bulls from becoming euphoric. When we get improvement in jobs, you will have the necessary ingredient for a last gasp blowoff rally, probably to 1400.
It is mindboggling how we keep going higher despite the lack of fund inflows and the insider selling and secondary issuances. I can only come up with POMO. Anyway, we should not expect much of a pullback this month, in fact I would be a buyer of dips rather than a seller of rallies for the next month or so. I am short now due to the excessive speculation but will likely change my tune on a pullback down to 1247. I think we see 1300 before 1230.
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2 comments:
welcome to the darkside. what took u so long??? remember, once you go long you cant go wrong.
I went long mid-day, but sold too early. I profited some.
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