Beyond the Next Dip

Sometimes I get caught up in the day to day movements and forget to see the forest while staring at a tree.  Livermore always said the big money was in the long term moves, not the short term fluctuations.  Whatever short term fluctuations we have in risk assets: stocks and commodities should be used to grab the long term position.  So we must do whatever we can to get a long term position in line with the long term trend.  I believe the long term trend is up. I will follow that theme and look to get long, not short.  I will still short, but only when the set up is very ripe. Otherwise, I'll be more focused on long setups.

I can't put all my belief in sentiment.  Especially when its so fashionable in the media to mention the sentiment surveys as a contrarian indicator.  It is counter to what other things are telling me.  The Fed's QE, the improving jobs picture, and the lack of retail enthusiasm and equity fund inflows.