There is a recency bias that occurs in the market, so some traders don't remember or forget what a bull market feels like. It is a pain in the neck for index short sellers, and rewards dip buying.
There is a wall of worry despite what the sentiment numbers and the put call ratios say. Traders are still worried about Europe, China, and to a lesser degree housing. Tepper mentioned the first two, and he's basically thinking the same thing as the rest of Wall St.
Only this month have retail started to cut back on bond fund allocations and got into equity funds. This should continue for several months. Retail is only now starting to jump back in on the equity bandwagon after getting burned in the flash crash and European woes last year. Give this bull market some time, let the retail traders pile in again. There will be plenty of time to short this market later. No need to rush. Have a good weekend.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
7 comments:
there are 100 point corrections in all bull markets which occur every 4-6 months.
I call this the top for some time. Perma bear "Market Owl" finally brain washed to a bull ... :-)
It is boring to say the same thing over again, but I am not going to be an academic and give you the party line. I am a natural born bear, but this is a bull market and I don't see a meaningful correction for at least the next month. During that time, we should grind higher and get to 1310.
MO - even if I am a day trader, I care abt the fundamentals. So if u think markets go higher, then there must be at the end a fundamental reason why those companies should earn more or/and have higher PE. Imho I just don't see the US companies do that. At some point interest rates must go higher, USD will appreciate against other currencies, US export will reduce. Also at some point big money needs some vola to earn $. I am not calling a top here but looking at the monthly chart, SnP is not out of the woods yet.
Also to be a natural born bear ... sounds to me very unprofessional. As a pro you have the cake and eat it too - u can buy a new cake any time. I am pointing to be opportunistic as the market moves !
Anonymous likes to talk fundamentals, I'd love to talk fundamentals. Obama is no Clinton, but in case I'm wrong, there's a possibility that companies will start hiring again, reducing unemployment, with the Republican Congress and the repeal of Obamacare. The SPX can still take off. However, because Obama did not fix the oil problem, oil prices will keep a cap on GDP & the SPX. Liz Ann Sonders, a Charles Schwab babe believes that we will stay flat. 2010 wasn't flat but if you smooth things out, it seems flat.
Petsy dude ... hehe ... u should join us at C4T ... :-)
Why should Obama be able to fix the oil problem - make US folks consume less is the only way to go. But who would want to dismiss his lovely car ?
Smellz like Wall St has too high expectations re earnings ... I see some corrections coming in near future.
That woman running C4T has issues. I'm glad she kicked me out.
Regarding da Bears, they need to recognize when to strike. I'm glad I didn't bet against the Packers ;)
Post a Comment