The same strategies don't work in bull markets like they do in bear markets. I believe we are in a bull market. That means the odds of shorts working are noticeably reduced. Imagine if you tried to short during the 2004 to 2007 period. Sure, you had the market correct but they were infrequent and most of the time, shorts lost money.
In equity bull markets, trends are slower and last longer. Sentiment is less effective. Just look at the sentiment numbers from 2004 to 2007. They lingered in mostly bullish territory with the market going higher most of the time. I have a leg short, but I'm not very enthusiastic about it despite just a minor loss. I need to see more signs of retail investors putting money where their mouth is. I want to wait for steady fund inflows before trying to pick a top. Every short before then is just a short term trade.
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Totally agree with this comment. I am just wondering what variables are different now that make me more bearish than then. Was it all the same game back then also, high unemployment, huge debt?
The only real variable is real estate. It never paused in the 90's or early 2000's. Now we have home prices creating negative value and the inventory at all time highs.
I don't know why i am so bearish for the next 3 months.
S&P RSI broke 75 today, how accurate is this indicator? Any data on this?
volume and volatility are back. The 100+ pt swing days are back.
Looking to go long vxx
dawg you should have held your short on zlc a little longer. You might want to go long zlc for a trade if it goes much lower. It could bounce to mid $4's
Hey dawg just want u to know that this dawg regrets getting out of the zlc short that quick. i am long from 3.75. 4.25 at the minimum.
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