Tide is Turning

This market looks tired.  After 3 weeks from the pre-election bottom, we have gotten to price levels and positioning targets which make this market more of a two-way market, not the one way market that it has been for this month.  That, along with the likely pension fund rebalance which is estimated to be quite large, should make it harder for this market to move higher from these levels for the rest of this month.  

The put/call ratios are showing some complacency, as they never really went up during the past 2 days when you had some downside action.  We are seeing quite a lot of speculation now in the EV space, my best indicator for retail speculative fever. It is getting a bit too hot right now, and it looks like we are due for a pullback to shake out some of these latecomers.  

We got the news after the market close that Mnuchin has requested the Fed give the money back to Treasury to reallocate funds.  This just seems like Mnuchin wants one more dip into the well to pad his slush fund and spew it out to who knows where before he leaves.  I wouldn't read into anything more than that.  The Fed emergency facilities weren't being actively used anyway, thus the large remaining funds there.  And its really not about the presence of those various BS facilities, its more about the Fed's willingness to break laws to use them.  And I'm sure Biden's Treasury secretary will be a monster dove and be very willing to break laws to spew printed dollars to all their favored special interest groups.  

I reduced my ES long position yesterday, just to be able to have more ammo to buy dips on what I expect to be a post opex move lower.  But instead of buying SPX, I am looking at the NDX as a better play.  According to Mark Hulbert of Marketwatch, growth and momentum do much better than value in December.  And based on what I am seeing on CNBC and Twitter, most people are leaning towards value, so they will be offsides if tech stocks start to outperform again.  Not interested in the short side, during this seasonally bullish time period.