Biggest takeway from the event of the day was how inaccurate the polls were. These are absurd misses by pollsters, with Trump outperforming the polls by a lot in almost every state. Rather than shy Trump voters, I just don't think Trump voters like taking polls. They were underrepresented in 2016 and even more in 2020!
Biden is a weak candidate, hardly better than Clinton, and he picked an unpopular vice president. His only advantage over Clinton is that he is male. Trump did everything to sabotage himself, refusing to budge and agree to Pelosi's demands for a big stimulus, which probably would have been enough to make him the winner.
Looking at the results so far, with lots of mail in votes remaining in the swing states, and Biden closing in on Trump, it looks like Biden will probably squeak by with a narrow victory. He had this election on a silver platter, with the coronavirus raging across the US and the economy in the crapper, but he's barely ahead.
Its clear that the mainstream media is losing its influence on the voting public, even though Trump is an easy target with all his character flaws, the Trump bashing is nonstop. Even though I am no Trump fan, its clear that the major networks except Republican dominated Fox want Trump to lose.
The Democrats should have dominated this election, with the spending advantage, the news coverage advantage, and with the unpopularity of Trump among independents, but it looks like they will barely take the White House. And be unable to take the Senate.
Looking at the market reaction overnight, you could tell a few things that one can logically deduce. I wrote about this over 10 years ago on a blog post called event days.
Basically what happens is that many traders and investors, usually holding a long position, either reduce the size of their position or hedge it buying puts or selling futures, ahead of the event. Many of them are fast money, meaning that they get in and out often, and have an inordinate amount of influence on the short term direction of the market. Ahead of the event, starting from anywhere from 2-3 weeks prior, to a few days ahead of the event, they are net sellers. When only a few days are left ahead of the event, they are mostly finished with their risk reduction and that lifting of the selling pressure and absence of fast money sellers lifts the market higher into the event.
After the event is over, the demand to buy stocks/bonds/other financial assets is much greater than the supply to sell at that time, especially among the fast money. And that's why you usually get a move higher after the event is over. The greater the fear and media coverage of the event, the bigger the pre-event selling , and the post-event buying.
This phenomena was the main reason I got long late last week. Last week's flush out induced a lot of put activity, similar to the late June and late September bottoms, which produced multi week rallies. So last week seems like a short term bottom and in a strong market like this, those can usually produce good rallies that last anywhere from 1 week to 2-3 months.
Having a Democrat in the White House with a Republican Senate probably means the fiscal stimulus deal will be much smaller than many were anticipating ahead of the election, but at this point, that's so far away from the market's thinking and I can tell investors are just breathing a huge sigh of relief that the election is over and volatility can calm down again, which probably brings in more buyers, especially the vol targeting funds.
Today is what happens when you remove a huge amount of uncertainty from the market. One for the memory bank.
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14 comments:
I have to wait another night. or much longer :(
There will be more opportunities to come, just probably not as good as the one we just saw over the past few days.
Id rather a party be upfront with racism rather than be told they want racial inclusion so they can get more votes and hide behind a facade of diversity. I dont want a party trying to mandate mandatory vaccinations, attack the church, sell out to china, spend needless money on bullshit projects, and defund the police. Which party is the real liar. I dont want a senile old man who enriches his own pockets overseas through bribes controlled by the democratic party and later replaced by a socialist leftist so they can continue to get votes from millenials and gen z who are all about that handout. I dont need politicians in charge who are more about proliferating their party by changing demographic trends because the people dont know whats good for them. Dont need a political party in charge that is in bed with the media controlling and influencing the public. Trump is farther away from this than Biden and Harris ever will be.
So you dont think obama sold out to china? What about clinton to mexico with nafta. What about that fucking tpp? How is all this shit not selling out to China and other countries all done by democrats?
Biden said in a town hall a couple weeks ago that he wants state regulated mandatory vaccinations. All democrats including governors and mayors were pro protest and pro defunding police. The democrats do whatever the people want. See thats the major problem and why I dont want a democratic puppet in charge. You also bought into all the bs from the media with their bs poll indicators. What does trump lie about anyway. Obama, clinton, biden, harris they are all liars too. Its just that the liberal media is biased and doesnt point it out as it does with trump. Fake and biased news is real and thats why the media bashes trump and calls him a liar. He exposes their tactics. He tells 60 minutes that they are nice and accommodative to biden but not to him. Cant believe you dont see whats going on.
Trump hasn’t done shit about China. 10-15% tariffs ? You think that scares China? LOL. They’re still stealing IP, doing whatever they want. That trade deal was made just to pump the stock market,
Mr. Bleach and his Covid lies. Said it would just magically disappear. Was just another flu. Its funny, he’s a fear merchant, selling the fear of socialism, about them taking away your beloved overpriced and POS health insurance. That they will take away your automatic rifles. LOL. Americans and fheir stupid obsession with guns. Paranoid idiots.
Yeah, I bought into the polls because I overestimated Americans. Didn’t think they were so many stupid enough to re-elect the most incompetent man in Presidential history. I thought 4 years of doing nothing except pump the stock market wasn’t going to be too popular. But now I know that half of them are dumb as shit, and most of em don’t have enough money to buy stocks.
Actually the dumb people are the ones who buy into the rhetoric that Trump is the most incompetent man in Presidential history. Because in case you haven't noticed, every GAWD DAMN MOTHER FUCKING ARTICLE ABOUT TRUMP IN THE INTERNETS IS BASHING HIM.
WHILE THEY PRAISE BIDEN AND HARRIS. GOOD GAWD.
I see Joe Biden talk and I say to myself "how the fuck did this guy became a presidential candidate???"
Let's face it. The chinese are the ones who lied about coronavirus. Not Trump. Trump understood that it whether it was a conspiracy or just happenstance, that it would sink his economy and hinder badly his chances of election. Yes, I agree he miscalculated by trying to play it off and keep the economy going. But he did orchestrate the largest stimulus in US history, shut off borders, and provided testing equipment/respirators/etc.
It's ridiculous that he's blamed for the economy post corona when 1) he wasn't the one that introduced it 2) it could have been coordinated 3) the democratic governors did their best in places like california to lock things down for so long that the many people became unemployed and further sunk the economy. All as an indirect means to spoil Trump's chances of reelection.
Again, it's the people who buy into Trump man bad rhetoric spewed all over all media channels that are the true sheeples.
They bash Trump because of the BS that he spews out. Bleach in your veins. Virus will just disappear. Greatest economy ever. Mail in voting is fraudulent. Stop the count.
People that worked with him think he is unfit to serve. And they are Republicans. Tillerson. Mattis. Bolton. Scaramucci. Kelly. The only people that are left are his sycophants and ass lickers like Mnuchin, Pompeo, etc.
Trump didn’t do anything about stimulus, but try to get his signature on those checks to boost his reelection chances, and it was a money spew POS pork filled legislation led by Pelosi and Mnuchin. That crap is nothing to brag about. Who knows where half that money went, it was basically a Mnuchin slush fund that he could hand out to his buddies. Giving away money is easy and its called socialism, Republicans all agreed to hand out gobs of money. If the Dems do it its socialism. If the Republicans do it its good policy? LOL.
The Republicans are socialist too, except only handing out money and tax breaks to their buddies and supporters, farmers, well connected fund managers and CEOs. America has become socialism for big corporations, Wall St, and the rich with political connections, and its laissez faire capitalism for everyone else. That is the worst kind of socialism. That’s more like China than socialist Europe. I’d much rather live in Europe than China.
Besides the incompetence, Trump is just a flat out asshole. Why do you think so many people that used to work with him hate him? Sore loser trying to sue to win and stay another 4 years. Spewing conspiracy theories and lies to seed doubt about the election results. He lost. Losing to a senile old man with an unpopular VP pick. He can’t deal with it.
Dude let me explain it to you as clearly as I can. Donald Trump although maybe he was not a christian in the past is now and at least tries to be someone with semblance of faith. He has shown this by his repeated efforts in Israel including moving the capital in Jerusalem and being a friend to Israel.
The DNC on the other hand calls the church faith based organizations and lumps them in with the buddhists, muslims, taoists, 7th day adventists, satan worshippers, Basically the DNC is an agnostic party and believes in self determination and do whatever you feel is right mentality. Its my body its my choice. I am my own god. I can choose to be me. I was born a transexual or gender neutral and I love sucking dicks even tho I have one. That is their fucking idealogy. A gawd damn free for all its my life my choice philosophy.
I was once a money worshipping pagan like you. You may not think you are but you are. When you trade its to make more money in your account not less. No amount of money is probably enough for you. Although you may not believe it or even see it, money is your god. You are a slave to the digits and that is why you trade.
I have been where you are. I know exactly what kinds of things pagans you live only once kind of people believe in and go through life. Its not your fault man. Or it may be but most people in this world live by the same credo. They are all lost bro.
And this is why I can never vote for the DNC and their one world globalist anti church free for all ticket. Include everybody mentality.
Trust me when I say they are going to fuck it up. If you read the bible you would know all the things I am talking about. From noah and the flood to cain and abel to sodom and gomorrah to the jews lost in the desert for 40 years to the prophecies of Daniel to the teachings and prophecies of Jesus. Whats happening in todays world is exactly what lines up with the dots when you understand what the bible teaches.
Now I have lived in your world and you know how I lived and been through. But i do not believe you have known God or the bible. And if you did you would know why people vote against Biden and that dnc party.
This is the beginning of the end. In recent history weve seen 911, wars , a massive tsunami that killed hundreds of thousands, a global plague.
This is just the tip of the iceberg. I guarantee you that Biden Harris and the DNC are going to do some evil shit you will look back later and say holy shit they really were satan worshippers.
See man. I know how you can say such a thing. I totally get it. Because I have been there. You know what kind of person I used to be. But if you walked the walk of faith and see whats going on in the world today using perspective you would know what im talking about. I guess you just gotta be there to see it. Ive been there and I know the dnc is all about that free will and there will be nothing that comes from it. Man fucks it up always have always will be. Green new deal or no deal the environment this and that watch what happens
Why mix politics with religion? Did the Bible say that the government needs to give big tax cuts to corporations, to give everyone the right to own as many automatic rifles as they can? To be a sore loser and scream election fraud?
Not just religion. Its about the life. You either have it or you dont. At least try to research a little bit when i say why trump matters why biden and the dnc matters. What they believe in what they protect. Its not about guns or tax cuts. Your seeing it from the point of view of a worldly pagan. You would see it if you know my perspective. But then you would have to know God.
Yeah I get trump is a big baby. The guy was an entitled millionaire kid who flew private jets and banged models. But its not about. Its about what hes not. And hes not the DNC thats all I know. Now we can have a bunch of discussion of all politicians are the same lying sobs but as far as im concerned trump is far removed from the dnc like obama clinton sanders biden and harris as can be. Not only economic policy wise and protectionsise wise but also civil and faith policy wise. Watch Israel is going to be hurting under this new administration like it was in obama. If you knew God you would know why that is important
Not for hard drugs, but weed should be legal everywhere, its definitely safer than alcohol.
So how's the market treating you? If you don't care about money anymore as you say, what's the point in trading?
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