Europe could care less. Eurostoxx is right back to where it was before the headlines of Greece/EU no-deal yesterday after European market close. The scarecrow investors who are scared of Greece will be scared to the end, until Greece gets their deal. They are obviously in a small minority because futures are pretty much flat from Friday's close when there was optimism of a Greece deal on Monday.
This S&P market is not strong enough to just power into 2200. I really believe that the top in the S&P 500 is less than 50 points away. In other words, I don't think we get to 2150, much less 2200. Money will be flowing into European equities as they will get a somewhat similar type lift as Japan did when devaluing their currency. I have pictured an ECB QE as the final blowoff top catalyst, and it is here. The top is within sight, it is just a matter of waiting for a bit more optimism from the investment public before going short. Short S&P, short Nikkei, short USDJPY, long Treasuries are the trades under consideration when the time is right.
Expecting mostly consolidation and small ranges for this week after making a hard move up the last 2 weeks.
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9 comments:
Long TLT may 126 calls @ 3.92
Long more TLT may 126 calls at 3.60
I am also long this dip in Treasuries. Swing trade.
Whats your exit target for 10 year yields
Entered when 10 yr was at 2.14%. Not too ambitious here, initial target for half is 2.08% on 10 yr, and then 2.02% for the next half.
Quite a selloff im surprised at the depth of this move. All of a sudden everyone is bearish on bonds. A couple weeks ago people were predicting 1.4 percent yield
Looking for a retrace, that's all, the intermediate trend for bonds is no longer up. Just playing a bounce here.
Definitely giving it a day or two. Is stocks sell off everyone will pile right back into bonds
Agreed, but once we get closer to March Fed meeting, stocks and bonds can selloff together if Yellen hints at summer rate hike.
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