I see very little edge in either the bull or bear side at current levels. We are in neutral territory, not too bullish or bearish. Don't want to force any trades in this situation. Treasuries are buyable around 2.00% yield on 10 yr if we get another dip, and ES is buyable if we can get back down to 2016 on Greek-related weakness. Remain bearish on crude oil, but it does look like it could go up to 54 short term, but ultimately should go back down to the low 40s later this month.
Taking a blog break while we are chopping around in no man's land. May post occasional comments here and on Twitter, but will be laying low this week.
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The information contained on this website and from any communication related to the author's blog is for informational purposes only. The analysis and commentary do not hold out as providing any financial, legal, investment, or other advice. In addition, no suggestion or advice is offered regarding the nature, profitability, suitability, sustainability of any particular trading or investment strategy. The materials on this website do not constitute an offer or advice and you should not rely on the information here to make or refrain from making any decision or take or refrain from taking any action. It is up to the visitors to make their own decisions, or to consult with a registered professional financial advisor.
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5 comments:
Thinking 50 will be the floor bears will try to test crude in and it will likely crack if it gets there. Can't really see much below 49 in crude. Commodities and trading is driven more by sentiment than the realization of the data that is a cross section of the facts. That's why oil stocks always tend to go down less than the price of crude during a sell off and start bouncing before crude hits the bottom. The sentiment is that somewhere later this year oil will be definitely higher than it is now and thats what will prevent it from making new lows. 7 billion niggas are on this planet and solar panels and laptop batteries aren't going to sustain them.
Long GPRO @ 42.82
I expect crude oil to be trading in the low 40s by March. Every day inventories are increasing by 2 M barrels and eventually price will have to come down to entice buyers when tanks get full. Production won't come down fast enough. Still pumping out record amounts in US, only near useless rigs getting taken out.
So you actually believe all that shit you read on the internet. hahahha
Yes, I am a sucker for numbers. Even when they are made up. I am very willing to take the other side of oil ETF inflows.
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