This feels like the fall of 1998 when we bottomed and went up in a straight line for 3 months to new highs. My thesis last week where we would top out at 1235-1240 and go back down to 1150 has quickly been invalidated. Luckily, I didn't put any shorts down on that thesis as I still thought it was too early to short from a time standpoint.
Now it's time to reevaluate what happens for the next few weeks. There are so many bears in this market that it makes it tough to be a steadfast short. Sometime late next week I'll look to take a longer term swing short. In the meantime, shorts are just quick trades. Also don't want to be long when we're up 210 points in 3 weeks.
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We will go down again next week, with Greece getting a 50% haircut... the Irish and Portuguese will won't their haircuts also. Also Eurobanks have approx 150bn Euros of Greek debts.... with a 50% haircut the 106bn of recapitalisation doesn't add up.... and all of this forgets the slowdown in China, oil back at $110+ is pain for emerging markets. This is still early days in the current down turn.
I agree with u 100% owl.
The GDP numbers where HUGE!
I heard a guy on cnbc w/Maria Bartoromo, yesterday say he was very bearish. He called for a recession and scowled and laughed at those calling for 2.5-3% GDP today!!
Gee, i guess he was wrong. I sure hope he doesn't manage any $$
Hedge fund managers are getting caught with their pants down. Not fully invested.
Their clients will be expecting big results this month with the S&P up so much. Sorry, but thanks for the 20% fee!!! Yikes.
I sure wouldn't try to short this anytime soon.
Yep, diving in short after a day like today would be way too easy. With 1300 right around the corner the pros probably will tag it and then some first.
I don't think there is anything easy about shorting this rally. I'm sure a ton of shorts have given up already after getting burned so many times.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MF
take a look at these guys. also on volume... makes me wonder.
good shorts never seem easy. bad shorts seem easy and is usually done as a herd and broadcast on all blogs.
Going long with leverage here is just as crazy as trying short this thing for a swing trade.
Hedge funds are WAYY under invested. It was to big a gamble on Europe. If the deal didn't get done we could have easily been down 300 today.
The hedge funds will continue to buy thru next week..then we go down.
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