Monday, August 29, 2011
Topping Phase
We are entering the top zone. We will be building up hope during this phase as traders expect 1250 and higher as we trade along. I don't expect this to last more than 10 days. But with the way this market moves, it might last just 2 or 3 days. In any case, this is a selling opportunity and upside from here is at most 20 points, with downside to 1100, or 100 points.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
10 comments:
Everyone decide this was 2008 mark II, but based on what? Some sentiment survey and weak to nothing growth? Is all the USD weakness worth nothing in nominal returns for this market. I think the consensus is actually hell bent on 1000-1050... but you won't get it for now.... I concede chart history favours it that you get fresh lows 6-8 weeks later... but way too many chart watchers out there nowadays all waiting and hoping for lows... this market will make late shorts sweat much harder especially all those around 1190
Actually its the opposite of what you say. Almost everyone on TV is saying this is not 2008. I am bearish because of fundamentals and technicals. Only thing this market has going for it is sentiment, and shouldn't it be bearish after a 150 point drop in 1 month?
It really isn't 2008 that is what I am saying, I keep saying its 1974, you have just made fresh lows in gold and chf, and time to get long stocks, out of bonds, and keep your gold for around 4-5 more years until Fed tightens for real. Charts won't work too many eyeballs for that.
Furthermore, the Elliotwave crowd, still has way too many followers. They didn't see the right shoulder break last year, they didn't see that when you get a false dead cross like last year you rip then get smashed (just done) about 6-9 months later per 2008, per 1987. History a much better guide than pure charts, study the charts of the 70's if you want to look at charts. But just step back, govts have one way out of this debt and its inflation. They won't stop until they have it... do not hold cash per Elliot wave Bob he isn't the Fed chairman.
I just don't see many similarities with 1974, back then, interest rates were much higher and you had wage inflation in the US. Now, you don't have any wage inflation, and zero interest rates. The only similarity I see is commodity inflation and a weak stock market.
Market Owl ... it's all a timing issue ... and you are now way too early. Lets have first some big banks fail before we talk of a new 2008. I the mean time up to 1300 again. Its window dressing and first of the month ... most likely green days ahead - except for Friday.
this isn't a new 2008 or anything. it's just a new recession with no bubbles so it will be mild. CNBC and media freak out whenever they see a 20% drop because they and their viewers are now trained to think that nothing is allowed to fall.
Sentiment gets too bearish whenever markets fall 10%. This contrasts with previous bear markets where people continued to buy down and get hurt. Having said that, I agree this bear will be relatively mild because of the overriding cynicism. Zerohedge is very popular these days
What do you need to get this market down, consumer confidence at 44.5, hope holding out for Fed minutes? We should be tanking otherwise.
Market Owl, would you Sell today's open? Or are we in for a massive short squeeze?
Post a Comment