Triple Bottom?

Not a chance.  Of the last 3 times we were in the 1250s, in March, June, and now, I would say now would be the worst of the 3 times to buy.  The reason is that the crowd is just not that fearful.  I see Jim Cramer touting this dip as a buying opportunity.  I don't remember him being so complacent in March or June.  Look at the sentiment surveys, they are just not that bearish.  Traders are conditioned to buy at these price levels so you don't see many throwing in the towel despite 8 straight down days and 90 points of downside.

Not only that, I see negative global divergences from the last time we were here in March, such as a much weaker Europe, deteriorating indices in China and the emerging markets, and no QE.  I am expecting us to burst through 1250 and test that SPX 1220-1225 area which marked the April and November 2010 highs.  We should be able to get a decent bounce from that level.  We could perhaps get there as soon as Friday.  Any bounce from SPX 1250 won't have much legs and will be sold fast.