Thursday, August 4, 2011
SPX 1220-1227
We are crashing through 1227 as I write, and 1220 is close by. This market is a lot weaker than many think. This is not your March or June market. This feels more like May 2010, when the VIX spiked to 45. VIX right now is at a relatively calm 26.8. The thing is, we are much higher now than back then, which is a bad thing if you are a bull. On the other hand, Europe is even lower. I always thought it was unsustainable for the SPX to outperform the world markets by such a big margin. The market thought stimulus would last forever, but that is only the case if the market is weak, not strong.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
11 comments:
Did we see a tradeable low for next few days
Perhaps, for a few days, but I wouldn't buy much here, just because I think we're not done with this selloff. The market wants to test 1180, probably by late next week after the FOMC meeting is out of the way.
I know I predicted a bottom around August 15 but I think this is gonna tank longer maybe out into September. We should bottom around 9000 though like I have talked about.
With no QE3 this market will just continue to sell off.
No companies are hiring. More and more are laying off.
People going to cash.
Not spending anything out of fear of another recession.
You need jobs and spending. We have neither. I will cut my losses on any bounce and short like crazy.
I recall over the last two years that, again and again, even when you thought it not even remotely possible, the market bounced back, usually very strongly.
I wish I had bought every one of those dips. But I didn't, out of the same sort of prudent caution that will very likely keep me from buying here.
Yeah, but this time, US stocks aren't so cheap. And there is more complacency on a 130 point S&P selloff than I have ever seen.
last year..before qE2 we were at 1064...we might return there.
n e one buying here has balls of steel!
Amazing nobody thinks a recession can happen anymore.
Feels panicky here, we are close to buyable levels. It is too late to short. But I don't think we can close strong today with Eurozone uncertainty and the nonfarm payrolls coming up tomorrow.
Amazing nobody thinks a recession can happen anymore.
I don't believe that's true. Many people think the last one never really ended, and what we've had for the last two years is a liquidity-fueled rally in asset prices, with the liquidity provided by the Fed. A look at the jobs numbers adds support to that. Good corporate earnings recently would seem to show that companies and people have been feeling comfortable enough to spend.
Anyway, the question here is: What's going to happen to the stock market? Per the above, it's been rising throughout this ongoing 'recession', at least in employment. People are wondering if that's going to continue.
Post a Comment