Thursday, August 11, 2011
Rumors Probably True
Whenever rumors, even when denied are this pervasive and have such a strong effect on the market, they are usually true. Soc Gen is probably in trouble and Europe is having their Bear Stearns moment. Remember, Bear Stearns was in March 2008, not in September 2008. So I do think we'll bottom soon. Either today or tomorrow. If we bottom today, we likely have already hit the low in the premarket at 1103. If we bottom tomorrow, it will likely be around ES 1080.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
2 comments:
Usually a big believer in where there is smoke there is fire... but Soc Gen is a net lender in the interbank market... unless Jerome hadn't another draw of hidden tickets this is BS. This is about ESF and the need for it to be $2trn not $500bn... nobody would attack European mkts with a $2trn bazooka pointed at them. This is 1978 get long.
The market is forcing the ECB's hand. It sniffs out the need for more firepower at the ECB and is testing them. Eventually, the Europeans will be forced to come up with some gigantic government package to backstop all the banks, but do we do that at these prices, or at lower prices.
Post a Comment