The trading should become more compressed as is the pattern after a market crash. Yes, it was a crash that we observed the past few weeks. I don't expect the market to go above 1200 based on the price action over the past 3 days. I also don't expect us to break below 1120 either. The tighter trading range should be around 1130 to 1180. So even though we are up 20 handles, we are still in the lower end of the trading range.
We are in a recession, and the market hasn't completely priced it in, based purely on the denials by so many Wall Street analysts still clinging to 1% growth estimates. This confirms my belief that we will retest and likely break 1100 sometime in mid to late September. Before that, we should have playable rallies. But don't get greedy. This is not your super strong market of the past 2 years. It is a new ballgame.
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bear market squeezes are some of the best trading tho. some sectors up 4-5% today.
Its not a bear market... sentiment says it is but hi frequency data far from it. How many people calling for even 1300 now? or even 1500. Why people hold endless supply treasuries over great managed and quality US companies continues to amazing especially with an earnings yield on even a cyclically adjusted basis of 5%... versus 10's at 2%... this isnt Japan, the US doesn't need to go thru 20yrs of derating from 100x PE.
Seems to be some itchy trigger finger money out there. People waiting for a rally to gain some steam before jumping in. Once certain stops are taken out the programs pile on.
Still seems fragile to me though. However I'm waiting 'til after Bernanke's speech on Friday to do much. It's more like gambling 'til that's out of the way.
Market won't be waiting on Bernanke. He is a non factor.
no matter what happens the rest of the week everyone seems to "know" 2 things... the fed will NOT start qe3 and the market is going to sell off hard.
So what happens?
this is a bear market and you will see it verified in a few months time. having said that, i expect this to be a mild and short recession.. 850-900 s&p max downside. there are no bubbles to pop this time around cept gold and bonds and when they do, money will flow into higher yielding equities. dividend stocks will fare best in 2012-2013 when markets will be relatively flat.
Exactly, expectations for a QE3 are pretty low so I don't see how you can get much of a selloff if there isn't a QE3 announcement. If there is a selloff, it would be an obvious buying opportunity. But you are right, so many are expecting a selloff on the non-news on Friday that I can't picture us selling off much. Also, I don't see us rallying much ahead of Jackson Hole because traders will be wary to be long ahead of it.
It will be like a Fed meeting type event trading environment. I would not be surprised to see us rally on Friday.
Gold has far higher to go, major bear market bottoms with a gold dow ratio of between 1-2, so Gold $5000-10000 is pretty likely in the coming years... it will probably be more like the 70's given we are fiat now with no peg to gold, i.e. market bottoms several years before gold peaks and the peak gold dow ratio is reached. So market bottoms maybe even here or next 12-18 months... point is it is very low and market will be and Dow 20-30K very probable in next decade as dollar standard dies.
Durable goods, why be bearish, the economy is doing fine... it will be thanks to Sakozy, Merkel, Obama if we end up in a George Soros reflexivity created recession. Stop being bearish otherwise you will make it a reality.
or stop trying to fight it or the cyclical downturn will be bigger than anybody wants. stuff doesn't go up forever, as opposed to what communists subscribe to
Cyclical down turns are not 20% of markets in a month
the bear has just begun
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