Friday, May 20, 2011
Gap Up Signal with Caveat
I am expecting a gap up but there is something hidden beneath this signal. We're at a juncture where failed signals will result in fast moves in the other direction. So I do think we will have a gap up with high probability, but there is a small probability of a gap down which would foreshadow bad things for next week. Once again, the market is worried about Greece and that is the reason for the risk aversion today but its the boy that's cried wolf a hundred times. And no dice. Those selling because of Greece hoping for a gap down are betting on snake eyes.
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4 comments:
gas prices are finally dropping.
Expect a relief rally this week, but sell into it. We continue lower in June.
So let it be written ...
I believe your view of Greece is quite typical of how most view it. You are forgetting that in each instance that we had Greece scares there was another bailout. So you have been conditioned to believe it does not matter.
If there is a default than "Katie Bar The doors" and it is looking increasingly likely that will be the outcome.
Greece default will definitely bring panic to the markets but it won't be the trigger for a bear market. It can trigger a small crash but not a new bear market. It is not something that is unexpected. If China's real estate bubble pops, that can create a new bear market. A Greek default will not because there will be bailouts and cans will be kicked down the road again.
I agree Owl. Buying(trading) big dips, for quick rips!
And yes I picked up some joyg today!!
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