Friday, March 18, 2011
Yen Intervention and Libya
Funny how all the good news comes right ahead of triple witching day. Its almost as if its all planned out! This Libya ceasefire means Qaddafi stays in control and rebels continue to protest. Qaddafi is a sly one. He knows that with a no fly zone, he can't pound the rebels, so what's the point in fighting? And yen intervention just makes the yen cheaper, for a short time, but it doesn't solve the nuclear meltdown. I am selling short this morning looking for weakness throughout the day. The market isn't ready to all of a sudden run higher like everything is solved.
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3 comments:
The US probably rallies more but it is only going to get worse as we come into May, QE2 has failed to help real estate or see banking lending grow meaningfully. Japan nuclear is media hype, Tokyo has lower background radiation than Rome or Hong Kong for example... Japan will be the best performing major market globally from here in 2011... just don't own the yen. Also I would load up on Chinese A-Shares via HK listed ETF's... super cheap and tightening coming to an end and inflation peaking.
Your are too early to short give it a few more days at least the only caveat is if Iran is serious about Bahran... not my base case.
I think the market will be lower than today in a few days, so I guess I am thinking opposite of you. I don't think good news is what is needed for a sustained rally, its time.
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