Central banks have just one playbook these days: market manipulation. I bring this up because last night, I looked at the Nikkei price action and it smelled of government support. Every small dip was bought and the market was slowly taken higher, with the support taken away once the cash market closed. After the futures market reopened, the Nikkei futures dumped 300 points on nothing while the ES was rising. There is no real demand for Japanese equities at this price level. The BOJ is setting the market price. When they aren't operating, the Nikkei goes down. When they are, it goes up. At least they admit as much. The PPT will never admit to anything.
We have a big gap up in the futures which sets up a possible rally to mid day and then dump into the close scenario. If the futures cool down in the remaining 2 hours till the open, we likely dump in the first half of the day and rally strong in to the close. Either way, fade the move up or down intraday today.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
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