1976 or 2004?

There are two historical analogs that I am looking at currently.  They lead to two different long term conclusions.  The bearish case is 1976.  The bullish case is 2004.  The market bottomed in late 1974 and rallied strongly in 1975.  In late 2002 and early 2003, the market bottomed and rallied strongly in 2003.

The current juncture is a market that stabilized off the strong rally off the bottom with the 200 day moving average flattening out.  Below are the 2 other times when the 200 day moving average flattened out in 1976 and 2004, along with the current chart.  I am leaning towards the 1976 case because it will be difficult to blow another real estate bubble in the next 3 years like 2004-2006.  Also, in 1976, the market had gone nowhere for 10 years, like we are at currently. 

1976- market rolls over.

2004 - market goes on to make higher highs.

 2010- probably like 1976.