From Trump Premium to Trump Discount

The US stock market is in transition.  From a raging bull market, to what is likely to be a raging bear market.   From a market that is pricing in a Trump premium, to one that is pricing in a Trump discount.  

The initial euphoria after the Trump election victory is a distant memory.   Hopes for big tax cuts, deregulation, and a repeat of the 2016 to 2020 up move in the stock market was consensus.  It was perhaps the most bullish I've seen investors on US stocks since early 2000.  It doesn't take much to push investors towards a less optimistic view when they are that bulled up.  This time, it wasn't just a small little catalyst, but a big bomb going off with the Liberation Day tariff announcement.  

It was commonly viewed that tariffs were just used as a negotiating tactic to make better trade deals with foreign countries.  But it underestimates the desire for Trump to have the US go back to the old days, where it was one of the manufacturing hubs of the world, with a smaller trade deficit, and when high paying factory jobs were commonplace.  Of course, for those with any kind of insight into the world of manufacturing and production, the US just can't be cost competitive with China unless it jacks up the tariffs several hundred percent, and thus raising prices on almost all goods by huge amounts.  That's just not going to happen.  The market would break far before it even got close to that situation.  And if the market breaks hard enough, next thing you know, Congress will be taking the keys from Trump and taking away his tariff powers.   

This past weekend, Trump caved to Apple and the mega cap tech companies that rely heavily on Chinese outsourcing.  It was Trump showing that he reached his pain threshold, and was feeling the heat.  It also gives China more leverage, as it shows that Trump is a caver, and while crazy, will back down if the stock and bond markets start panicking like they did last week.  Which forced Trump to both delay tariffs by 90 days, and then backtrack even further with more tariff exemptions.  

Of course, Trump didn't want to sound weak, so he tried to talk back his exemption, saying it wasn't an exemption, but a reclassification to another bucket of tariffs which are at a lower rate.  Howard Lutnick came out on the TV circuit to try to tamp down the enthusiasm, saying that tariff exemptions were temporary.  For those that know Lutnick, he is probably the biggest brown noser in the business.  What he's saying is what Trump wants to hear, and what Trump believes.  The stock market doesn't want to believe in that reality, instead hoping that Trump fires Lutnick and Navarro, so the stock market can go higher.  Trump is far closer to Lutnick's view than Bessent's view.  While the market seems to love Scott Bessent, as he tries to placate the market  every chance he gets, its not what Trump's really thinking.  Trump wants tariffs, and wants to keep using the threat of tariffs to exert his Presidential powers.  That's not going away.  

With the gap up today, investors are assuming that Trump has showed his hand, and his mettle, and its a weak hand.   He's clearly not willing to stand up to the stock and bond markets to push his trade agenda when they are having a tantrum.  As much as he wants to reduce trade deficits and bring back manufacturing jobs to the US, he doesn't want to experience the pain and pressure of being responsible for a big decline in stocks, with growing anger from his corporate base.  

While Trump caving means that markets are less worried about big tariffs, he's stubborn and so obsessed with being at the center of the action, that I expect another tariff tantrum just so he can be the center of attention again.  He enjoys being both the arsonist and the firefighter who puts out the fires that he starts.  

Last week's panic move lower, and subsequent huge rally higher on the 90 day tariff delay was a classic waterfall decline, followed by the strong reflexive bounce.  You saw similar action in August 2011 and August 2015.  The current situation is worse than both.  Not only are investors more complacent than back then, they are also much more heavily exposed to equities, making it likely that last week's move lower was a prelude to a new bear market, rather than the starting point for a re-newed bull market.   

The COT data released Friday showed a significant, but not overwhelmingly big reduction in asset manager long positions in SPX.  If you zoom out on a 5 year time frame, the current asset manager net positions in SPX is still on the high side, but no long extreme.  It is still way higher than most of 2022 and 2023.  

SPX Asset Manager Net Position

The commercial net position is still relative neutral, despite the big selloff, and way off the highs that you saw from mid 2022 to late 2023.  

SPX Commercial Net Position

Last week, you saw the stock guys on CNBC start talking about bonds.  They only talk about bonds when something bad is happening in that market.  Once again, we witnessed long term Treasuries fail to provide a hedge to equity market weakness.  Its now the 3rd time in a row, the first in 2022, the second in late 2023, and now where Treasuries sold off hard as equities sold off hard.  Instead of acting as a hedge, long term Treasuries have acted as piece that adds more downside volatility in the portfolio in times of stress.  The golden days of Treasuries providing a positive yielding hedge to equities are long gone.  That's bad news for financial asset investors that could use the diversifying benefits of a negative correlating asset that provides positive returns like bonds did from 1981 to 2020.  That era appears to be over, as we now live in an era of fiscal dominance.  

I believe that for the rest of the year, you will be transitioning to pricing in a Trump discount, a much bigger one than what happened post Liberation Day.  Trump has only a few cards that he can play when trying to push around the stock market.  Its either big tax cuts or big tariffs.  Despite him caving on tariffs over the past few days, he won't want to give up on that card, not when it gives him so much power.  And he loves being the center of the chaos, where he seemingly controls the outcome.  Its a power trip for him.  He's not going to give that up in order to placate investors and CEOs. 

Anecdotally, I still see a lot of investors eager to try to catch the rebound, expecting a continued rally when tariffs are out of the headlines.  You have seen a huge amount of retail dip buying this year, and  that has continued into the waterfall decline.  With the Fed unwilling to bail out Trump on his tariff mess, and with big tax cuts and deregulation a more distant and uncertain catalyst, there doesn't seem to be the fundamental backdrop for a sustained uptrend.  We will see bounces and big bear market rallies, but the damage has been done.  Its looking more like the fall/winter of 2000, the spring of 2022.  The beginning of a bear market.  

I entered a starter short position after the 90 day tariff announcement rally, and remain short.  I am looking to play for a 2/3 retrace of this rebound off the panic lows, expecting more volatile chop in the coming weeks.  Not looking to put on any big positions in this volatile market, especially on the long side.  Playing small ball until I see a fatter pitch.  I do think you will get a magnificent shorting opportunity sometime this summer.  Until then, looking to just stay in the game, and trying to hit singles.