14 Trading Days Since the Bottom

We've had sufficient time and price action to get investors bulled up since we hit the bottom in late September.  The news is not moving the market, its greed and the fear of missing out (FOMO).   The FOMO is so great that it is probably greater than the fear of losing.  Usually you don't see these V moves higher so far ahead of a much feared event, if they happen, its usually the few trading days right before the big event, when almost everyone has already hedged or pared down risk levels ahead of the event. This time, its actually feels like investors are risking up into the event, expecting a Democratic sweep and a giant stimulus passing early next year.  

The market has taken a glass half full view of the election ever since that disastrous debate for Trump, thinking that a contested election is now off the table and Biden will win easily.  While I don't disagree, there is still the uncertainty of how the Senate races will play out, and the risk is still there that Republicans maintain the majority in the Senate even with Trump losing.  That would be a disaster outcome because Republicans will not play ball and agree to a huge stimulus deal to help Biden.

Since we are so close to all time highs, and we've rallied 300 SPX points off the bottom in less than 3 weeks, it seems like a good risk/reward trade here shorting with the election uncertainty providing a possible excuse to selloff the market in the next couple of weeks before the big event.  I cannot imagine the market being so accomodative to new bulls here and just go straight up into a monster event risk situation.  Anyway, I added to shorts yesterday with a target of SPX 3400-3410 by next week.