I am putting on my bear suit today. With this gap up from Ukraine "de-escalation", we have made a dramatic reversal off the overnight lows at 1891 and are at levels where intraday shorting provides a good risk/reward opportunity. We should chop between 1907 and 1915 in the first hour but after that, I am expecting weakness as the European close approaches and then further weakness in the afternoon as fund managers will be reluctant to take overnight risk on equities. We have entered the de-risk phase of the market, and with so much risking going on over the past several months, this pullback will not disappear so quickly. Plus with deals breaking up, the fundamentals (not Ukraine) are speaking of equities that are too high given the realities of the economy and the imminent end of QE.
I believe these Ukraine headlines are puppet masters pulling the strings. Some of these Russian officials must be having a field day trading bonds and stocks off these headlines! Game plan is to play short today, off of ES 1914-1915 and look for a flush lower in the afternoon.
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Hi MO, I usually agree with all your commentary and my desire is also to short. However, I feel as though everyone is looking to short today. Hasn't the whole crowd gotten bearish? I'm concerned that we may get a nonstop chop higher. What do you think of that possibility?
I don't believe everyone is looking to short. Maybe the open, but will they short when we start rallying into 10:30 AM and it looks like an up day? Rather than intraday shorters, in these situations, the movers of the market are the fund managers that are near panic, not short sellers sitting on profits over the past several days.
And I don't think there are as many shorting as you think, after the massacre over the past 5 years, the shorts are definitely reduced in number.
Still taking short position on SPX or do nothing? Thx
And that's what I feared :(((
I was short and have to cover. I think this thing rallies for another day or two and then we come back and break through 1900.
I think SPX 1930 will be very tough to get through. Monday should be a strong down day now that we have relieved the oversold condition.
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