Bullish for this Week Only

Bulls still have the advantage, but its no longer a lopsided contest.  Bears are starting to put up a fight, and longer term, bears have the advantage.  Yesterday was a violent puke down to deep oversold levels in the Nasdaq, until you got dip buyers going bananas.  It shows the underlying weakness in growth stocks, while displaying the strength that limitless liquidity unleashed can have on the favored sectors, which now includes AAPL with their hedge fund happy package of more stock buybacks and 7 for 1 split to get into the Dow.

I don't recommend to try to pick dimes in front a bulldozer, because going long at these levels sort of feels like that.  Dancing between the raindrops.  Threading the needle.   But it beats the alternative of shorting just because its seems right.  To me, the big move is down, not up.  But until the nonfarm payrolls on Friday, longs will be reluctant to sell.  And bears will be even more reluctant to be short of what is expected to be a big jobs number.  After the Russia Ukraine non-event over the weekend, risk is being put back on the sheets at the hedge funds.

Not expecting anything different from the FOMC tomorrow, and then it will be all about the nonfarm payrolls number.  Plus before that, you have the usually bullish first day of month.

The Nasdaq is clearly in a topping pattern, and without Nasdaq leadership, I don't see how you get a big move higher based on just defensive sectors leading.  It almost never happens.  You need high beta leading the charge. That is why being long is picking up dimes in front of a bulldozer, but usually the bulldozer waits till after the jobs report.  So long is still the play, until Friday 8:29 AM.