Well, that certaintly wasn't expected. I've been saying that with high bullish sentiment, it doesn't increase the odds of a down day, just the magnitude and speed of a down day. We got that initial strength off the gap down on Monday and plunged with vigor that we haven't seen since early December. Of course, we get the gap up from the dip buyers eager to buy any dip but the dip doesn't tempt me to buy. Sure we could go right back up, I never underestimate the strongest market in the world. But have no confidence being bullish in this market.
I am leaning bearish, but want to express that through either a short USDJPY position or short Nikkei/Hang Seng. At least in those other markets, when you short, you don't have to fight the stock buybacks.
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You think this selling leg is now over then and new highs are coming?
I think we go back to the previous top of the range, to around ES 1840. And then back down again. Not worth it to get bearish today, wait for another push higher. I refuse to play the long side here, although it could go higher.
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