Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Banana Bullets
Banana Ben is due up. This AAPL news caught a lot of shorts off guard. And with BB set to babble, they will want to square up positions for fear of further squeezing. I am expecting a strong morning session as the shorts scramble over each to cover. Then we'll probably flatten out for the rest of the day. Perhaps we'll get slight weakness off BB, I expect him to save his banana bullets for a more urgent situation. So same old, same old. Tomorrow could see profit taking, depends on how today plays out.
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AAPL May 600 Calls --- from 10 to 25 overnight.
FATALITY
ZNGA is way of the warrior.
FINISH HIM!
Come one, come all.
Give me your poor, your helpless, women, and children
Your free, sick, rich, and privileged.
Come one come all and be fishers of ZNGA.
Ride the ZNGA train with me.
-OL DAWG
Expecting a bloodbath tomorrow. I think today is the top of this swing move from Monday's low. Trade accordingly. Don't know if ZNGA can FINISH HIM! Might end up being a FATALITY.
Why bloodbath tomorrow?
I think we're going to test 1400 to 1410.
There is no way Wall Street is going to let ZNGA come out with bad earnings on the eve of the FB IPO.
There is way too much money at stake.
ZNGA makes ups 13% of FB revenue, and if they disappointment, the IPO will be shit and already wall street is making this out to be the IPO of the century.
Wall St. knows that ZNGA is peanuts for FB. It will not use up any foot soldiers to save a dying ZNGA. It's triage. Wall St. only saves the generals, AAPL, MSFT, etc. They let the peons like NFLX and ZNGA to fight on their own.
We're just in a tight trading range, with S&P 1390 on the top, 1360 on the bottom. We're near the top of the range.
To play devil's advocate, FB could be delaying their IPO because they know ZNGA will have bad earnings and they want the bad press to die down before they go public.
The shitty earnings theory
Dude, we missed the Nat Gas bounce.
This looks legit.
2 legit 2 quit!
I am looking to short Natural Gas soon. Perhaps if it can get up another 5%.
Facebook is pulling out all the tricks led by it's underwriters. You want the issue to have as cynical and uncertain a tone into the IPO as possible.
Let's have a discussion about stock performance right prior to an earnings release.
For market stocks and stocks heavily covered by wall street banks, IMO, they will run it the opposite way of the way it actually performs prior to earnings.
Example AAPL. Which worries me about ZNGA. If the stock is very strong tomorrow and up a good amount, I think i will sell. Because probably, GS or even SAC/Citadel/Soros Fund is short the entire time at the top, and the stock gets crushed the next market session.
In the mean time, the day before earnings, Joe Average trader thinks the stock is strong/weak because it will beat/disappoint.
Agree or disagree?
Yeah, the earnings tend to end up surprising traders more than meeting expectations. But I don't think the Wall St banks care to control stocks like ZNGA, they will just let it do what it wants. They only control the stock on IPO day and a few days following.
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