Friday, February 3, 2012
Like 2006
After a flat 2005, traders weren't too excited about 2006, but what we had was a steady rally with one dip in the spring and then a continuation into higher highs and a big up year. I see the same thing happening in 2012. Volatility will die out, we'll have our annual big dip which scares the traders, form a bottom, and it will be off to the races. I expect us to hit the same levels as the end of 2006, 1440 by the end of the year. That would be the bounce top off the January 2008/March 2008 lows we saw in May 2008.
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4 comments:
u could have told us this a month ago.
it sounds good. The dip will come early in the summer when the debt ceiling is again the big story.
nope..
compare 2006 and now http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/frbz1/FL894104005
2011 may have been a net flat year as was 2005, but structurally different charts. we are in the 3rd retracement push up from the 09 march lows. the 08 lows exceeded the 2002 lows, so there is still one retest of the lower low needed to complete multi year wave structure. a higher low next 18 months will confirm long term equity secular bull market. 2014-2018 is where you wanna buy and hold IMHO.
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