Thursday, January 26, 2012
Fed is Dovish
Who is actually surprised by that? They will keep rates low till 2014. Last year it was till 2013. Ok, next year it will be 2015. These fortune tellers actually think they can predict the economy 2 years out. Look how wrong they were in fall 2007. It doesn't help to think what should be done. My job is to react to what will be done, and that is more QE and more pump priming. The question about QE3 is not if, but when. And then it will be on to QE4. I believe the dollar has made a long term top, and gold a long term bottom over the past few weeks. US equities are in a bull market, but with S&P at 1325, there isn't much upside. It looks fairly valued. The only way to go higher is to get overvalued. That will be hard to do unless we see enthusiasm for stocks again like the good old days. Those days are long gone.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
18 comments:
With another 1trn in the next LTRO the dollar still has much higher to shoot, Mario D is playing one hell of a catch up game with Big Ben. US equities will get torched excess dollar strength will be the QE3 trigger, it is probable US equities peak out here ahead of the next leg of in the USD.
If you look at the leaders of this bull market, e.g. Apple, Yum, charts are at the top of uptrend channels, the correction will occur any day, we do down to side way for next 6 weeks.
?? you are sure of qe3 ..and qe4 but you think the market has topped?
When the fed continues to print money hand over fist and rates are held to near 0 on interest rates. Where do you think everyone will be putting their money?
The markets will soar! if the fed announces qe3 this year we will hit 1500 on the s&p.
Everyone NOT in the market is already getting pissed off watching it go up 5% in the past 3 weeks.
Hedge funds will be pouring money in.
Market topped today
The question about QE3 is not if, but when.
Continuing ZIRP is a kind of stealth QE3.
Clearly the Fed's goal now is to keep stock markets moving up. They've now seen that buying MBS (QE1) did not help housing, and buying government debt (QE2) did not create jobs. So they'd have a hard time selling QE3 as something to help the economy. That said, political opposition will evaporate if markets tank.
Markets pretty much ignoring bad news right now. That's nothing new, but there's an edgy feel to it. At this point, hard to see what the reaction to a Greek default would be.
A Greek default will be quickly forgotten. First, it is a small country that is already expected to default, so I don't see the market being surprised by it. The financial consequences are not going to be significant, because you have the ECB now very supportive of the southern European countries willing to do QE. Printing money can eliminate any debt problems.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-27/s-p-500-near-golden-cross-after-20-rally-technical-analysis.html
The central banks give money to the banks to buy sovereign debts and the governments keep borrowing more and the cycle keeps repeating.
Any idiot would know that there will be costs associated with the printing of more money. Commodity prices will keep going higher and income just can't catch up with the rising costs. There will be social unrest and change of governments.
This will end badly...probably with a war.
yes, but this won't happen for many years.
In the mean time we can make lot's of money in an artificially inflated stock market.
Take our profits, retire to a small warm island and be catered on by tall gorgeous amazon women.
All our supplies will be dropped of by plane.
it has paid to fade the herd who are all bullish now
I don't think the herd is all bullish, I would say the market has been climbing a European wall of worry. The general sentiment is getting more bullish, but I would not consider it excessive by any stretch of the imagination.
market is going higher dawg.
we going to 1345.
can u feel me?
Ol Dawgs play list.
Long RENN
Long all Solars JKS FSLR LDK
Long NRGY
Long SHLD
Long GMCR
Long BVSN
Long everything.. Long the wing wang UP in here
Long PTNR
can u feel me?
REE.. a 7.50 stock trading for 6.14
Can u feel me?
Ol DAwg
retail is leveraged long. going for broke. there are definitely more longs out there. shorts already went out of business and capitulated.
You are retail. We are all retail.
Hahah.. it's like you're at a poker game and you look around the room and you call them amateurs while you're the professional.
Yes, but I will always fade extreme retail sentiment. I have never met wealthy retail investors. Everyone is conditioned now to buy the f'ing dip
Post a Comment