If you've noticed, I've been advocating BTFD and being bullish on small pullbacks even after the huge run up over the past 2 weeks. But today is kind of a game changer. Not in the sense that we go right back down or have a deep pullback next week. In the sense that a market that will immediately blast to new yearly highs doesn't drop 20 points on a nonfarm payroll miss. I still believe we rally early next week to test ES 1355-1360 because of such strong momentum. But today's drop makes a 1355 - 1360 short a much stronger play.
By the way, this is not because I think this number dooms us to a big slowdown. I could care less if it was +18,000 or -118,000. Nonfarm payrolls is probably THE most overrated economic data point. It was the market's reaction that caught my eye.
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Spain collapsed 3.44% today and everybody is giddy with AAPL's low volume churn up.
Look at EM's and gold stocks too.
I am keeping an eye on Europe. It will matter when the U.S. market is willing to pay attention. Now is not the time. But it is a bad sign for equities in September and October.
Opex has been down since April -- could matter next week then we rally again
Actually, I thought today should have traded down 250+...the numbers are not "bad" or "slightly lower" or "one step forward 2 back" ...they are horrible!!
Now I'm hearing..."fluke" or "one time" they have been trending worse.
But I agree with the owl...nothing seems to matter. The markets are going higher period. Expect QE3.
Still looking for Dow under 10,000 by middle of August at latest.
The slow upward drift happens in the beginning to middle of a bull, followed by a consolidation year (this year) and then some sort of accelerated move up with sharp corrections in between. The period between the middle to end of bull markets though they can last another few years are characterized by expansion in the intraday range as the open interest continues to leverage.
I'll remember that when the next bull market arrives.
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