Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Europe = Punching Bag

Again.  Shorting European stocks is like fighting a midget.  You can't lose.  Sure they can occasionally bite you in the knee caps and you can have some cuts here and there.  But in the end they get KO'ed.

During US hours:  US rallies, Europe grudgingly gains about 1/3 of the US gains.  US drops, Europe drops the same percentage.

During European hours:  Europe usually just drops, and when it doesn't, it barely goes up treading water.  Swimming upstream.  ES usually unaffected and squeezes in the 3 hours before the opening bell putting on their best Alfred E. Neuman mask.  ES has a scary moment during a European mini-panic, but that is the bottom, and it continues to squeeze into the US open and amazingly, gaps up while Europe is stuck in the mud.  That is the story of this market.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Such nonsense. If the USD starts rallying significantly you can bet on Europe outperforming the US.

In real relative terms the US is getting poorer and poorer or increasingly less rich (depending on which part of the world you are comparing to), also compared to (core) Europe.

Of course this isn't even mentioning the moral bankruptcy of your political system and the black hole of corruption and nonsense called "defense".

Companies which are focused on the domestic US economy (primarily focused but of course not limited to construction, real estate and sub megacap financial institutions) are performing worse than terribly. The reason the US stock market is doing well is not because everything is awesome in the US.

Anonymous said...

Owl, so does that mean you aren't shorting the screaming sell gap up as you posted yesterday

Market Owl said...

I am short my friend. The ducks were quacking and I was feeding 'em.

Market Owl said...

I thought trading was done in nominal terms, not real terms. Bernanke is printing dollars, not euros my friend. Dollars. A lot of em out there looking for a home. They find it comfortable in US stocks.

Anonymous said...

Owl any thoughts on tonights europe meeting

Market Owl said...

Based on the charts, it looks like we are set up for a sell after the EU summit. Of course this is barring drastic action by the EU which is unlikely. Already rumors about buying sovereign debt with the bailout fund so expectations have been raised. Strong possibility of disappointment.

Anonymous said...

Where's the volume?? Everyone at the beach?

Anonymous said...

no one trades NYSE. 99% prints are bots.

Anonymous said...

All the real moves are in currencies and commmodities. Equities are just a derivative.

Anonymous said...

Can't fight central bankers and politicians. I am sounding like a broken record