Monday, April 18, 2011
Back to the PIIGS
The yields are starting to blow out again among the pigs. Greece, Portugal, and Ireland don't matter. They only matter if it infects Spain yields, which are near new highs. But this market is at a tricky spot here. We have already pulled back and earnings expectations have come down over the past week. That is a positive for the bulls. But in the intermediate term, we've got the end of QE and the sell in May phenomena that will be a psychological headwind in a few weeks. Also Europe will continue to be a drag and bearish headlines can come at anytime from the PIIGS. The bears have the edge overall, so gun to head, I would rather be short than long.
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2 comments:
Euro bonds auctions sharply drop next month, very front loaded for PIIGS like last year... almost out of woods again for a year. Bias is to steadily get long (longer) here, for me to remove puts as vol push up again.
Very long term or very short term, I agree. But I expect a strong dip in May.
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