Full Moon Special

The full moon is out, and the wolves are howling.  I looked at some interesting data over the weekend.  The CBOE put call volume data for Friday was extreme.  It stood out because it was one of the 10 lowest put call ratios for index options over the past 7 years.   Looking back at those dates, the market had trouble going higher, and usually pullbacked within days.  It is also surprising because we traded mostly flat on Friday.

Investors have forgotten about hedging downside risk and are just letting it ride.  Combine that with the Investor's Intelligence bullish sentiment, anecdotal complacency, and the weak futures despite the Ireland bailout news.  I've continued to believe that you have to sell the Ireland bailout news, as it is very anticipated, and buy when we have further fears of contagion towards Portugal.  I am reshort the ES in the premarket.