Wednesday, April 14, 2010

January vs. Now

I am seeing some comparisons between the rally into January and the current rally.  Yes, there are quite a few similarities, the timing is similar, with the rally extending into the start of earnings season, the VIX reaching new 52 week lows, a cratering of bearish sentiment, and almost no weakness in the prior month. 

The differences are harder to find but there.  We didn't have a scare like Greece before the January rally, unless you call a 1 day Dubai selloff a scare.  We also had more bulls in January according to sentiment polls than now.  In other words, traders were less prepared for a deep selloff in January than they are now.  This makes me conclude that the top will be a longer process and we'll need to probably trade longer at these levels before we can reverse.  I am still in hit and run mode, and will not be hanging to shorts for too long.  I think we'll sell off on this gap up on the INTC and JPM news.

4 comments:

Tsachy Mishal said...

The II bulls are back at Januarys levels according to the survey that came out today.

Anonymous said...

Check this Link out on INTC 10 Year Resistance.
http://chart.ly/qx6224

iv said...

I am all in as they say in Poker at 1204 ES with a stop at 1216....target 1185 at the least and 1165 at the best...

look out below--

http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

Anonymous said...

Anyone following mE..

From now on I"m only posting my trades as I have always been doing at

twitter.com/skang357

Sold TRMA @ 3.11

OL DAWG