Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Fed Says No Bubbles

Bernanke, Kohn, and Yellen all say there is no bubble in the asset markets.  These clowns don't have a clue about asset markets.  They exist to bail out banks and to flood the market with liquidity whenever the stock market goes down.  The Fed is hell bent on blowing another bubble.  On the sentiment front, I am hearing more investor talk about overvaluation as S&P has surpassed 1100.  Yes, stocks are overvalued but that doesn't really help my trading.  I will not short off that.

I noticed that the dollar etf, UUP, is up 0.72% while the S&P is down just 0.28%.   I will not be short just yet, but I am getting more bearish and I doubt we go much higher.  Tomorrow or Thursday should be day to lay the hammer down.  I hope to see some volatility on one of those days to signal that we have reached a top.  If there is little volume or volatility, the short signal will be weaker.  I will probably just be watching today till the close.  FMHR was 2 bulls, 1 bear, 1 neutral.

5 comments:

panzer said...

MarketOwl, what is Fmhr? if it is a sentiment figure, I read today that bullish sentiment has increased dramatically in the past week. Any word on this? tia

Market Owl said...

FMHR is initials for Fast Money Halftime Report on CNBC. I don't have data from sentiment surveys that came out this week. They should be coming out tomorrow and Thursday.

panzer said...

marketowl, one more question, I hope I am not imposing. Here is a chart that to me is very telling, but sometimes I do not know what I am looking at:
http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack/folders/09Q4/media/5f9d3716-6840-4c80-9fae-5a4b2bc030a2

does it give shorts pause? tia

panzer said...

sorry, the chart I tried do post is the $NYSI summation index (stockcharts)which just had a bullish crossover, and the track record of this indicator looks frighteningly impressive...of course they all work until they don't but still.....punch in $NYSI on stock charts and scale in the past couple years and you will see what i mean...tia

Market Owl said...

I looked at the chart, it didn't work that well the last 2 times in 2008, and of course during a furious rally in 2009, it has worked on the buy side. I am not super bearish, but I think the next 30 points from here is down, not up.