Dull NFP Day

Bulls got what they wanted, a stronger than expected number and the market hanging tough.  The market is exceedingly dull going nowhere for the past 2 hours.  They say to never short a dull market but I'm gonna short anyway because I think the upside is limited and I think once we start selling off, its going to be hard to jump on board. 

Safe to Short

I believe it is now safe to short at will around these levels.  The anxieties about the job report are gone, and we are levels that have a lot of resistance above.  I don't believe this market has much fuel left to go higher, so I am erring on the bear side.  Timewise, we can churn for a bit longer at these levels, but price wise, I think we are near the top.  I have initiated a short position and will ride it till next week. 

Fade The First Move

Usually when the NFP comes out, the best play is to fade the first move, that is, if we move sharply up after the announcement, then one should sell, and if we move sharply down, one should buy.  I agree with the sell portion of that theory, but I wouldn't be so eager to buy on the first move down.  I would wait for things to settle down a bit if we do have an initial selloff on the report. 

We're slowly grinding higher here in afterhours, it looks like shorts are feeling the pressure and if we blow, it will likely be to the upside.

Tomorrow's NFP

The market is very quiet today ahead of the NFP, but notable is the lack of weakness ahead of the report.  The shorts just aren't able to get out of their positions at a decent price ahead of the jobs report.  The price action today is contrary to the consensus expectation that the number will come out poorly due to snowstorms and the weaker jobless claims numbers.  I don't know how the number will come out, but I expect us to trade higher after the release.  Thus, I am waiting till after the number comes out to put on my short position.  I am not interested in playing long at these levels.

More Intraday Weakness

The market looks like it wants to test lower levels before going higher.  The remainder of the day will be positioning ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report, which most expect to be weak due to the snowstorms.  I think we'll at least test 1114 today intraday and may crash below that down to 1110 by the close.  But I will wait till after the NFP on Friday to get short again. 

Very Close to Top

The past 2 days trading tell me that this market is near the top of its range, and will have a hard time adding gains above 1125.  Two consecutive black candle bars tell me that we are late in the rally.  I doubt there is fuel in this market to take it back to yearly highs, but we could go as high at 1135 in the next 2 weeks.   I have covered my position overnight and will look to get back on the short side after the NFP.  I am reluctant to play the long side here, because there isn't much room to go higher but plenty of room to go lower.  I still believe that we will consolidate near the upper end of the trading range for several days before having a sustained correction. 

For today, I am looking for a slight dip in the first hour and then rallying slowly for the rest of the day. 

March ES Projection

Making a wild guess, but I see further consolidation from here to slightly higher levels for the next week or so.  Once bullishness builds up and the Greece situation is out of the picture, the market will be ripe for the next correction.   This change reflected in sentiment surveys and anectodal evidence should be sufficient to satisfy the conditions of complacency.

Then I see a step down into a lower trading range and then a steady move down after March expiration, with the down move starting in earnest from post expiration Monday.  There should be plenty of dip buyers along the way down, which will make the down move slower but more steady than the correction from mid January to early February. 

Upper range target is 1135 on the ES and the lower range target is the 200 day moving average, which should be around 1045-1050 in late March.

Same As Yesterday

I will be looking for a top in the first hour of trade, with resting sell orders above.  I don't know if they will get hit, but I'll wait.  No need to force trades with this kind of lackluster action.  I feel like we'll have a reversal intraday and finish near the day's lows.

Dull Market

Intraday trading range is 7 points, but we've traded most of the day between 1118 and 1121.5.  A horrible market to daytrade.  If you play overnight, you can catch a bigger part of the range, but have to forgo your freedom/sleep to do it.  What a market!  Ahead of the NFP, I think we have now formed the top, at 1122.75, but the bottom of the range is still a question mark.

I want to add to my short soon, because I see a 1% swoon either tomorrow or Thursday intraday.  I want to catch that move.  The question is will the market give me a decent price to get short at before we swoon.  I can only hope.

No Good Setup

A squeeze up to 1124 would have been a perfect short entry but we know this market doesn't like to give easy short entries.  We are seeing emotionless trading, which is to the advantage of the bulls because we've rallied and yet to see a lot of bullish excitement.   I have reduced my short position as a result.  I want to be able to load up on the short side either later in the day or in the overnight session tomorrow at higher prices. 

Squeezing

Yesterday's uptrend momentum is carrying over in the overnight session. I am holding a short position, but I have plenty of room to add more and will on any pop that we have in the first hour.  I think the highs for the day will be made in the first hour of trade, and will trade accordingly.  No economic data today, but Greece is having a debt issuance tomorrow from what I hear.  That may be a market mover, along with the ADP jobs number tomorrow morning.  I expect a decent sized selloff either Wednesday or Thursday as traders take profits ahead of NFP. 

Staying Short

We are at the very top of the range.  The trading this week will be driven mostly by traders lining up ahead of the economic data, mainly the nonfarm payrolls and the Greece bailout.  I will be looking for a reversal tomorrow as we are extended short term and I don't see a breakout happening ahead of the NPR.  I stay short.

Shorting The Rally

I may be a bit early on the short side, but I like the risk reward ratio selling at these levels.  I think traders are a bit complacent amid reports that Greece has its bailout and in the face of the resilience of this market.  I have gotten short and will target lower levels in the middle of this week. 

Set to Short

I will be waiting for the bulls to overplay their hand and have resting orders a few points above, hoping for a fake breakout and a reversal.  I have closed out my overnight long.  The ISM index comes out at 10:00 AM and if it comes out well, it could push us up to areas where I will be shorting.

Hitting Neutral

The market seems to be in equilibrium, not too optimistic or pessimistic.  More Greece bailout news hit the wires and the Europeans got excited but it didn't last, and we're near overnight session lows. 

In this kind of environment, the odds favor range based trading.  I will treat this market as if its in a range, and we're probably close to the upper end of that range.  I do think we have room to go a bit higher, but not much.  We may churn between 1085 and 1115 like we did back in late 2009 again.  I don't see a breakout over the next week above 1115 as being sustainable. 

I am still long but will likely close out or reduce my position significantly by the open.