Election Uncertainty

There are tendencies in the financial markets.  These tendencies revolve around investor behavior.  In particular, behavior surrounding hyped up events.  There are very few bigger hyped up events than a Presidential Election.  This event trading phenomena is repeated over and over again in the markets, as written in a blog post about events last year.  The upcoming Presidential election is the next big event.  What has surprised me is how little concern there was regarding the election up until last week, when we had that big one day drop on Thursday.  Once again, it takes negative price action along with event risk to get investors' attention.  Just an upcoming event is not enough.  You need to see weakness ahead of the event to get traders concerned about adverse outcomes.  

Investors are almost always long financial assets.  Their asset allocation will be dependent on the market environment.  The current market environment is an expansionary fiscal policy with loosening monetary policy with little concern about inflation.  This type of loose fiscal and neutral to becoming loose monetary policy is favorable for equities, and somewhat unfavorable for bonds.  That's what's happened over the past couple months.  The upcoming event, the election, will not change the fiscal situation.  Both candidates don't care about the huge government budget deficit, and are becoming more populist.  Both Republicans and Democrats have thrown fiscal conservatism out the window, and are raging spenders and tax cutters.  Throughout the campaign trail, you have heard both Trump and Harris talk about no taxes on tips, tax credits for new home buyers, no taxes on overtime, etc.  

So once the election is over, investors are likely to go back to buying stocks once the uncertainty is eliminated.  This will happen during a very bullish time period for stock buybacks, as November and December are historically very heavy buyback months. Those 2 months account for 23% of buybacks historically.

As for monetary policy, there will be no change over the next year, since Powell will still be Fed chair, but from 2026, the Fed could go in 2 different directions.  Since the markets are so short term thinking, I won't go deep into what could happen from 2026 depending on Trump or Harris winning, but its easy to see a more explosive situation arising if Trump wins and Powell is fired.  

Powell is quite political, and power hungry, as he has shown most recently with the 50 bps rate cut ahead of the election to try to boost the markets higher to help Harris.  If Harris wins, Powell, will have more incentive to be dovish, as he will have a legit chance of getting renominated.  If Trump wins, Powell will realize he has no shot of getting renominated, and will have no incentive to be over dovish as he is now.  

The markets are worried about higher inflation under Trump, as its likely a Republican Sweep if he wins, meaning he'll be able to get more tax cuts passed.  Tax cuts stimulate the economy, as well as blow out the budget, both bad things for bonds.  The bond market has sniffed this out, and has sold off relentlessly since the Fed rate cut in September.  Its clear that bond investors are much more scared of the election outcome than stock investors.  Bond investors remember getting crushed in late 2016 when Trump got elected.  They have PTSD from that episode, and are exercising caution this time around, and are delaying any bond purchases till after the election.  

More recently, stock investors have gotten nervous as the gap between Trump and Harris odds of winning narrows, creating more uncertainty, and a greater possibility of a contested or undecided election for an extended period.  The market hates uncertainty, even if the fiscal policy effects are not that much different between the 2 candidates.  You saw some nervous longs reduce their equity exposure and there have been many more bearish postings on Twitter.  

Over the weekend, you had a poll showing Harris ahead by 3 percent in Iowa, a number that was completely out of the blue, in a historically a deep red state.  It seems like everyone still believes the polls.  The polls have shown in both 2016 and 2020 that they just do not cover Trump accurately.  Trump voters have a much less propensity to participate in these polls.  And it makes sense.  In general, Trump supporters are more anti-establishment than Harris supporters.  Many of them don't like to be involved in polls.  Plus it seems like there are a lot of shy Trump voters.  That is why the polls vastly underestimated his support in 2016 and 2020.  There is no legitimate way for pollsters to correct for these errors.  They can't just put in more Trump votes to try even out the polls and make them more accurate.  They can try to weigh the sample to cover more Trump supporters, but that adds a huge margin for error for the results.  That makes the polls even more useless, as the pollster is pushing his thumb on the scale, to try to come up with a result that he thinks is the most accurate.  

If you look at what issues are the most important for voters, the economy is clearly the most important.  These polls are more accurate than polls over who wins because its less partisan, and don't involve Trump.  Any polls that include Trump will just not be very accurate for the reasons stated above.  With the economy the most important issue, and with more voters thinking Trump is better for the economy than Harris, you should expect a lot of independent voters to lean Trump.  In particular, many independent voters who invest in stocks will naturally lean towards Trump because they will believe that Trump is better for the stock market.  And with the high inflation under Biden, those that are hurting from inflation will also naturally lean towards Trump.  

If you add race, gender, and name value into the equation, they all favor Trump.  It may seem ridiculous, but a lot of voters will vote for who they know, even if they aren't supporters.  That is why incumbents have a natural advantage over a challenger in Congressional races.  Males have an advantage over females.  Whites have an advantage over blacks.  In particular, liberal female candidates are always going to be at a disadvantage in a general election.  They have very little crossover appeal.  That is why you've seen so many right wing female prime ministers in Europe (Thatcher, Merkel, Meloni, Le Pen) and almost no left wing female prime ministers.  Female candidates tend to attract female votes, in addition to party votes.  If most female voters are in the same party as the female candidate, then there are fewer additional female voters (independents and the other party) to pickup.  Since males lean to the right and females lean to the left, there are much fewer female Republican voters to pick up for left wing female candidates.  While right wing female candidates have many more potential female Democrat voters to pick up. 

Harris is the anti-Trump candidate.  Very few will be voting for Harris because they see her as a good candidate.  She was basically anointed as the candidate, with no voting involved.  I doubt she would have won the Democratic primary if Biden had dropped out sooner.  She is not popular.  Its hard to win as an anti-candidate unless you have several factors in your favor.  And she doesn't.  Biden is unpopular, and that gets passed on to Harris, on top of her original lack of popularity.  

Short term, if Harris wins, you likely see a reflexive, mild dip in stocks and a strong rally in bonds.  If Trump wins, you likely see a reflexive, mild dip in bonds and a strong rally in stocks.  I don't expect an extended selloff for bonds or stocks under either scenario.  Bonds have already front run a lot of weakness, so there isn't much more juice left in that short bond trade.  Stocks have corrected most of the post Fed cut rally, and are in a favorable macro environment of loose fiscal, and neutral and loosening monetary policy.  Plus, stocks have strong upward momentum and favorable seasonal factors.  Both stocks and bonds would be a buy on dip scenario if there is a little panic, post-election.  Based on the high VIX readings and the low realized vol, there is a lot of potential vol compression that could happen after the election.  The current COT readings for VIX futures show speculators with a slight long position.  Historically, speculators have held large net short VIX futures positions.  They rarely get long, except during panicky markets, such as Covid panic of 2020, VIX panic in early 2018, and the heavy selloff in late 2018.  I expect a big vol crush post election, which will be favorable for equities as delta hedging from vanna flows will cause dealers to cover shorts.  

Bought the dip last Thursday to get long SPX for the next few weeks, expecting a Trump win.  This is mostly an election trade, looking to catch a post election rally that could last from 2-4 weeks.  Longer term, I remain bearish due to high valuations and high equity allocations.  A post election rally could be the beginning of the topping phase for this raging bull market.  Tops are a process, so expect choppy range bound trading with lots of ups and downs over the next 6 months before the transition to a long term downtrend.

Thoughts on the Election

A lot of investors are now accepting that Trump will win the election, with a good probability of a Republican sweep of Congress.  I agree with the Wall St. consensus that Trump wins.  Harris is just not a popular candidate, and has much less name value than Trump.  Add to the fact that she's the VP under an unpopular President in Biden, who helped usher in a very high inflation period.  And she's a black female, which makes it the worst demographic to get elected for President in the US.  

Contrary to what many Democrats believe, white candidates have a built in racial edge over black candidates.  Male candidates have a built in gender edge over female candidates.  There is a reason that you've never had a female US President.  And you've had one black President, who only got elected because he ran against a female primary candidate and during a severe recession under a Republican White House, guaranteeing a Democrat win in the 2008 election.  

Harris will get the anti-Trump vote, and the Democratic vote, but she won't get much of the independent vote because of the above reasons.  Overall, it looks like Harris is very likely to lose, although I would still give her about a 10-15% chance of winning because the polls are close.  But I think polls still underestimate Trump's support because there are still lots of shy Trump voters who don't like to admit that they are voting for him because of his un-Presidential behavior, and he isn't politically correct.   

Under a Trump presidency, the Trump tax cuts get extended, some tax cuts are possible, some additional tariffs (unlikely as much as Trump threatens), and less immigration = slower population growth and labor force growth.  This will increase the fiscal deficit, increase inflation due to a combination of lower taxes and fewer workers, and lead to higher bond yields.  It seems some investors are jumping the gun, looking at history, and thinking a Trump win will be a repeat of his first term, when you had a roaring bull market in stocks.  This is only feasible if you have blockbuster earnings growth (unlikely without another Covid era money spew) or have a further expansion in valuations on top of already historically nosebleed levels.  All while bond yields stay high due to the inflationary impact of loose fiscal policy/higher tariffs/tighter immigration.  Odds are high that the next 4 years in the stock market are nothing like 2017-2020. 

Under Trump's easy money fiscal policy regime, demand is artificially increased which creates higher growth.  That higher demand has 2 release valves.  One is through the bond market.  The other is through the currency market.  If the Fed decides to stay vigilant against inflation by reacting to higher inflation with higher interest rates, then bonds become the release valve of this high pressure economy.  Yields go higher.  If the Fed decides to ignore the higher inflation, then the currency becomes the release valve.  Financial repression through negative real interest rates will weaken the dollar, leading to even higher inflation in a vicious loop that will cause a bear steepening of the yield curve.  Of course, if the Fed restarts QE, then the bear steepening is suppressed, at the cost of further dollar weakness. 

In the first higher yields scenario, you get higher bond yields and lower stock prices.  In the second financial repression, weaker dollar scenario, you have a wildcard.  It is hard to predict how that affects the stock market.  If commodities skyrockets along with inflation, that will make stock market investors nervous, and you could see earnings go up but valuations drop hard.  If inflation doesn't get raging hot like 2021/2022, then you could see stocks go up along with a weaker dollar. 

Powell will be Fed chair for at least the next year, and if he's a lame duck as would be expected under a Trump presidency, he will no longer have to play politics and will focus more on his legacy, thus try to keep inflation under control.  He will become more hawkish as a result.  If the stock market isn't in an entrenched downtrend, I would expect Fed funds rates to stay higher than what the STIRs market is anticipating, meaning that you should see only 2-3 more rate hikes from now till the end of 2025.  That will eventually catch up to the bond market, as the maturity wall for corporate bonds will be coming in 2025 and 2026.  Corporations will have to refinance at much higher yields than previously, and interest expense will continue to creep higher.  

I expect the stock market to eventually readjust to a return of a tighter Fed in 2025 by going down.  It may take a few months for this to happen as the initial economic bump up from having Trump elected should keep the stock market buoyant.  By the 2nd half of 2025, this short term Trump adrenaline shot will have to face the new monetary reality.  At that point, a 2nd half 2025 waterfall decline in an overvalued, overowned SPX will be matter of when, not if. 

You likely get a reprieve from hawkish monetary policy in 2026 if Trump does what I expect him to do, which is replace Powell with a dovish lackey for Fed chair.  But the financial markets are so short term focused that its not even worth thinking about till right before the Fed renomination decision. 

The longer term effect of a high deficit, negative real rates policy under Trump is political change.  There will be a different US president in 2028, and by that time, raging high inflation will cause immense pain to the bottom half of the population.  That would basically be handing the Democrats the keys to the White House and Congress in 2028.  Controlling inflation will be the priority among the masses and that will be when the Fed has to make a hawkish turn to accommodate public opinion.  A Democrat sweep will be waiting in the wings, and it will be accompanied with higher taxes and higher interest rates.  Again, this is a much longer term consequence of what is likely to happen over the next 4 years and is not something that is market actionable.  

It appears that the late Friday selloff was due to the telegraphing of an Israel strike on Iran over the weekend.  The unwind of the afternoon selloff has happened overnight, and we're right back to no-man's land.  This is a level in the SPX where neither longs nor shorts have much edge.  Although given my belief that there will be a Republican sweep in next week's election, I would rather be long than short from now till then.  Ahead of big events, the financial markets have a tendency to front run the expected result and squeeze out much of the post move juice that would have happened without the front running.  

I was hoping for a move lower ahead of the election on the uncertainty but too many investors have FOMO, and don't want to miss a rally on a Trump win, which most investors expect.  I got out of all shorts last week, on that small dip.  Seasonal weakness is now behind us, and after tech earnings this week, the corporate buyback window is wide open.  

It is tough to find a real edge here, because if there was a 100% probability of a Trump win, I would go long, but that's not the case.  There is some small probability of a Harris win, and that potential downside keeps me from chasing longs here.  I think its a bit late to be short here with the election only a week away.  Some may question the premise that a Trump win would be good for the stock market, and I agree long term.  Especially if bond yields remain high in 2025, which would be bearish for stocks next year.  But over the short term, the vol crush after a big event like a Presidential election being over would be enough to squeeze the SPX higher for at least a few days.  Even with bullish expectations that you have going into it.  

Bottom line, its not a good risk/reward spot for either longs or shorts for both stocks and bonds.  Some may be tempted to try to buy the correction in Treasuries but I see little upside near term there, and there could be one last reflexive dump in bonds after a Trump win.  If that happens, I would consider buying Treasuries for a short term trade.  Right now, I don't see much edge.  In the case that you get a move towards SPX 5750 this week, I would be a buyer of that dip.  Otherwise, likely to be on the sidelines. 

The Long Game

"Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market." - Ed Seytoka

Everybody gets what they want out of the market.  Contrary to what they say, many people are looking to maximize thrills by betting huge and minimize the emotional toll of grinding through the ups and downs of winning and losing.  Trading is a game made for masochists.  Its not a game that will make you happy in the long run.  Being a trader is similar to being a drug addict.  It is hard to stop once you get into it.  It dulls the senses, making other non-trading experiences less interesting and fulfilling.  One of the greatest traders ever, Jesse Livermore, considered his life a failure and killed himself in the end.  

You get to choose whether you want to play a long game or a short game.  Those that want to play a long game will innately trade in a way to ensure their long term survival.  They can sense when they are in danger and betting too big, and reduce size and cut losses to live to fight another day.  Those that want to play a short game take huge risks and YOLO.  They are overconfident, but also know that they are living on the edge.  Its thrilling and exciting, but it doesn't last long.  They don't have the patience or the desire to play a long game.  

Why would anyone want to play a short game over a long game?  Its because of the emotional toll of trading.  The basic principle of this emotional toll is the pain of loss vs. the pleasure of gains.  It is widely known that the pain of a loss is felt greater than the pleasure of a gain.  Losing $10,000 will be much more painful than winning $10,000 is pleasurable.  Let's roughly estimate for gains and losses of equal amounts to be:   Pain of Loss = 2 x (Pleasure of Gain).  In order to emotionally break even, you have to have at least twice as many winners as losers (of the same size), or at least 67% winners to be emotionally "winning".  That is extremely difficult to do.  

Thus, to maximize the pleasure from trading, traders will often choose to incorporate a high winning percentage strategy, which means taking many small winners and letting losers run, in order to increase their winning percentage.  That's a formula to maximize long term emotional "gains", but not the formula to maximize long term financial gains.  Partially its because markets tend to follow trends more often then not, which means that letting losers run is a very bad strategy.  Its also because when you hold on to losers and cut your winners, the size of your losing trade becomes bigger relative to the size of your total account balance.  You end up taking bigger risks in the worse spots, and taking smaller risks in the better spots.  That is a long term loser of a strategy.  Yet, this is an emotionally appealing strategy from a reptilian brain wiring of win = good, loss = twice as bad point of view. 

A huge majority of human beings have this emotionally reptilian brain (including me).  It means that most of us are not emotionally designed for optimal trading.  We feel pleasure from taking winners.  We feel more pain from taking losses than from holding losers in the hopes that they turn into winners.  The longer we hold on to losers, the harder it is to take those losses, especially after all the mental capital that was spent holding on and hoping that the losing trade would come back and turn into a winner.  

A disciplined, winning trading strategy usually maximizes pain (lots of losses) and minimizes pleasure (larger, but much fewer wins).  That is why trading successfully is for masochists.  You have to enjoy the pain of taking losses, with the long term view that your short term emotional pain will lead to long term financial gain.  A lot of traders know this, but subconsciously cannot follow this strategy because its emotionally painful.  For those who are emotionally invested in their trading/investing accounts, being disciplined and taking lots of losses is self-induced torture.  That is why many choose to bet huge, to YOLO, to get away from the grind of this self-induced torture.  It is the strategy that maximizes long term emotional happiness, but also maximizes the probability of blowing up. 

You don't have control over where prices will go, but you do have control over how much you bet.  In my early days in the markets, I thought it was all about picking the right direction, whether it be up or down.  And while being a good forecaster and predictor is important, its less important than knowing how much to bet.  You can be the best predictor of prices in the world, but if you are bad at choosing bet size, you will either blow up or make very little.  

It is during losing streaks like the one that I am in right now that remind me of the importance of money management.  Its sucks to be in a deep drawdown but you can't allow your emotions to take over.  If you do, you'll try to find a quick way out of this painful spot by betting big, to make that quick comeback, to feel much better again.  That is dangerous.  That is the psyche that destroys trading accounts.  Been there, done that.  During losing streaks, it can feel like Chinese water torture.  Taking short cuts to try to relieve the pain of losing is lethal.  In order to win in the long run, you have to be a masochist.  You have to accept short term emotional pain as part of the process to achieve long term gains.  

The latest COT and options data shows no major changes, investors are dug into their heavy net long positioning, with lots of call activity and its working, so I would not expect anything to change until you start seeing bigger moves up and down.  This upward grind during a seasonally weak time period is a horrible market for my style of trading.  The nosebleed valuations make any long term longs a poor risk/reward trade.  It feels like insanity to be short this market.  But historically, these type of overvalued markets with investors heavily allocated to equities occur near market tops.  But market tops are usually a process that takes many months before the trend changes, so we have to patient, but persistent in looking for the big down move.  Its a tricky balance to maintain, but there will be great opportunities for those with a bearish bias in the next 12-18 months.  

The bond market weakness is partially reflecting election uncertainty and the fear of a potential big selloff like you saw in the past 2 elections.  The bond weakness is also showing the unfavorable supply/demand picture for Treasuries.  The giant fiscal deficit means lots of Treasury issuance, much of that having to be taken in by non-public investors.  Until the Fed restarts QE, bond investors face this hurdle of heavy supply.  This supports the long term bear thesis which is predicated on equity valuations being extremely high relative to bond valuations.  

Equities are at the bottom of the corporate capital structure, and face the most risk during economic downturns.  Therefore, earnings yields (inverse of the P/E ratio) should naturally be lower than long term corporate bond yields, due to the added risk of equities.  With long term investment grade corporate bond yields around 5%, the fair value for earnings yields should be above 5%.  Or put another way, the P/E ratio should be below 20 in this high government deficit, heavy Treasury supply market.  But with an estimated 2024 S&P 500 earnings of ~$250, the current P/E ratio based on 2024 earnings is approximately 23.4.  Based on this metric, the market is at least 15% overvalued. 

Still stuck short and not looking to hold beyond this week.  Post October opex week is a seasonally bearish time of year.  With many already assuming that Trump will win, there is plenty of room for the crowd to migrate towards a more neutral positioning ahead of the election.  The market is pricing in a quite optimistic scenario and assuming that you will have a post election rally after a Trump win.  So many assumptions for the base case optimism on the Street right now.  If even one of those assumptions comes under question over the next 2 weeks, you can have a quick dip lower (likely to be bought immediately).  The bears have one week, perhaps two weeks max, before the probabilities shift much more favorably to the bull side.  I will let the shorts play out this week and get out.  Its been a terrible ride for shorts, but this pain will set up a much more favorable environment for shorts with the tenacity and patience in 2025. 

Its a MAD market

Most investors are in M.A.D. mode.  What, me worry?  The market keeps grinding higher, and the shorts keep losing.  Unfortunately for those that are short, the window of weakness for the SPX is getting smaller and smaller.  Seasonal weakness has not played out for most of the last 2 months, despite the elevated net long positioning among asset managers and the complacency of the crowd.  The election has been ignored, and it seems most believe that there will be an end of year rally after the election is over.  On Twitter, the bears are dropping out like flies, as I've seen many throw in the towel as the SPX busted out to new all time highs last week.  

The bullish price action is uncanny as we are heading into the last few weeks ahead of the election.  Maybe its the strong SPX rallies post election in 2016 and 2020 that have investors complacent, one won by Republicans, one won by Democracts. It appears many believe that based on recent history, it will go up post-election no matter who wins.  However, if you asked investors if stocks would go up or down if the corporate tax rate went up from 21% to 28%, most would say they would go down.  And the Trump tax cuts are not something that automatically gets renewed if there is no legislation.  Those tax cuts are set to expire if the next President does nothing and lets them expire at the end of 2025.  And Harris will let them expire.  That plus other low probability risks to stocks such as raising the capital gains tax rate, which is possible in the small chance that Democrats sweep the election. 

On CNBC and Bloomberg, there is very little talk about the ramifications of the election.  The recent news surrounding geopolitics, strikes, hurricanes, and even the Fed have distracted investors from thinking about the big one:  the election.  And its the one that can actually have a meaningful fundamental impact on the future earnings of corporations and investors.  Maybe the market continues to ignore this risk all the way to the finish line on November 5, but I view that as a low probability scenario. 

Despite what looks like a ripe environment for stocks to pullback, the opposite has happened.  Trading is a probability game.  You can play the odds and make your bets based on historical tendencies in similar environments and still lose.  Sometimes history doesn't repeat itself.  Most good trades on the SPX or other major markets will be only slight favorites.  You just don't get a big edge trading such big, liquid instruments.  So you have to be able to withstand drawdowns, cut losses, and move on.  But you also have to be able to know when its too late to get out.  For mean reversion traders, often times the more stretched the rubber band gets, the better opportunity.  The moments when counter trend traders are losing the most are usually when the best opportunities occur.  Of course this is assuming that the trader has a valid winning long term strategy.  

The only way to get to the long run is if you survive the short run.  The only way to survive the short run is have proper money management and not make huge bets.  

The past week's COT data showed little movement among asset managers and commercial traders.  The large asset manager net long position remains.  The OCC data for last week shows both small and large options traders buying more calls and with bigger premiums than for puts.  The data came in as one would expect for an up week.  No real edge there.  Put/call ratios are generally low, but that is to be expected considering last week's price movements.  

There is a tendency for opex weeks to be bullish on Monday and Tuesday if we are at or near an all time high going in.  The is early week bullishness is usually reversed later in the week, as opex gets closer and options expire, leading to fewer ITM calls and fewer OTM puts outstanding.  This can trigger more outsized moves on opex day and for the following week.  This is what often happened during the monster up year of 2021, when you had lots of call option activity, which led to rallies up to the beginning of opex week, where options hedging forces led to selling later in the opex week, and sometimes spilling over to post opex Monday.  That would be my base case for this week's price action as many are bulled up going into this opex.  

With new all time highs and SPX over 5800, we have to temper our expectations for any pullback that comes this month.  Even with election risk coming to the forefront soon, the price action doesn't support a big pullback.  You usually have more bearish price action or more volatile two way trade at the highs prior to big pullbacks.  We are not seeing that now.  So while my original thesis was for a move down to SPX 5450 when initially short, I now think its likely that the most this goes down in October is 5600.  So I don't even foresee a 5% pullback from the highs ahead of the election.  The shorts will have to be satisfied with a graceful exit and/or minimal gains on a pullback, rather than any big profits.  2024 is the bull's year, and trying to make money on the short side has been trying to squeeze water out a rock.  2025 should prove to be a much different trading environment.  So for the bears, don't waste too many bullets trying to take down this super bull, save them for what should be more of a two sided market next years, with patient bears likely to get paid much more often than either 2023 or 2024.  

Still full short position, as I view any gains early this week to be taken back quickly later in the week.  Covering now and trying to reshort later is trying to be too cute when we are this far overextended with so much investor complacency .  The potential upside is more limited than potential downside this month, so its not worth it to micro trade.  Staying short.

Canary in the Coalmine

Bonds are the canaries in the coalmine.  They are the first movers.  Many short term tops in the SPX are foreshadowed by an intermediate term move higher in yields.  After bottoming at 3.60% on Tuesday, Sep. 17, the day before FOMC meeting, 10 year yields are now 40 bps higher, 3 week later.  The 4.00% yield area should be short term resistance for 10 year yields, as the Fed is still hell bent on making a dovish mistake and boxing themselves into a bunch of rate cuts.  Political Powell, once again, is making another monetary mistake due to his greed, looking to stay in power by trying to prevent Trump from getting back into the White House.  This time, instead of delaying hikes, it is rushing and pushing forward rate cuts that are unnecessary.  

Bonds are calling BS on the Fed's rate cutting path, afraid of another dovish mistake on Powell's part, his 2nd in less than 3 years.  The aggressive steepening of the yield curve, the refusal for bonds to rally despite a bigger than expected 50 bps rate cut at the last FOMC meeting, and the firming economic data.  Powell is trying to put Harris in office to assure that he gets renominated for a 3rd term, with inflation ignored and concerns about a labor market that isn't even that soft, all pretense for big rate cuts to goose the stock market and odds of Harris getting elected.  

The only way to keep the long end under control is to stop QT, and do QE again.  With the monster budget deficits, there is just too much Treasury supply to keep yields under control without a recession.  Even with 50 bps whopper cuts every 6 weeks.  Powell is once again short sighted, looking out for himself and trying to pump up the stock market to curry favor among the rich and powerful, to get support for a renomination in 2025.  It is all but guaranteed that a Trump presidency will look to replace Powell with someone that listens to Trump, not ignores him.  And Trump can clearly see that Powell is being political, and will get his revenge by kicking him out in favor of a new FOMC chair.  That new chair will likely be even more dovish than Powell, looking to keep rates low no matter what. 

The whole premise for the post FOMC rally in stocks was that the Fed was going to be dovish, to support the economy and ignore inflation in order to try to boost the job market, and thus the overall economy.  A soft landing, or even no landing scenario.  But the big cut has become counter productive because long bond yields are going up, not down.  So it minimizes the monetary stimulus of the rate cuts.  And without monetary stimulus working throughout the curve, the stock market will not be able to hang out at these nosebleed valuations for long.  The euphoria can last a few weeks, maybe even a few months with a Trump victory, but ultimately it will fail under the pressure of sticky long bond yields above 4%.  

This bond weakness comes at a time when the stock market is facing the uncertainty of the election a month way, where odds are 50-50.  You cannot get more uncertain that a coin flip.  And this market needs a Trump victory.  There is no way Harris will extend those Trump tax cuts.  She has other ideas of how to bust the budget.  And no, it will not be as stock market friendly as Trump's budget busting plans, as it will funnel more money into the lower and middle class, igniting inflation again.  

Back to the stock market.  Last week, we saw a pullback in the US amidst geopolitical concerns as crude oil rallied a few dollars and VIX squeezing higher.  It was a very mild pullback, contained to SPX 5670, the top in July.  After the blockbuster, and heavily manipulated NFP numbers came down the pike, you got the reflex rally higher in SPX towards 5750, where it is now facing some serious resistance.  During the pullback, the put buying remained subdued, and the bulls were defiant.  The financial experts on CNBC stayed bullish, and have completely bought into the Fed put and soft landing theme.  I could feel the latent bullishness on Twitter as well.  Its a warning sign that there are a lot of bulls out there that still aren't prepared for the coming election volatility.  It increases my conviction that you have to put on shorts early this week, before everyone comes to their senses and realizes that they are paying top prices right ahead of some serious election risk.  

The COT data confirms the lack of concern and heavy bullish positioning.  Asset managers hardly reduced their net long positions in SPX and NDX futures.  They even increased their net long in Russell futures despite the weakness post FOMC meeting.  Dealers have gotten even more short, shortest YTD, as the small reduction in asset manager longs was more than made up for by a reduction in shorts from leveraged funds.  In total, a bearish picture from the latest COT data.  

Covered half of my SPX short before the NFP on Thursday, and looking to re-add the short today or tomorrow.  I don't think this market will give you much time to short the highs so I will be in a rush to short any rallies.  I am looking for a return of volatility starting later this week.  Will not be picky about trying to nail the top this week, because of the lopsided risk/reward at these levels for shorts. 

Tracking the Puck

"I skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been." - Wayne Gretzky

Its been a bad time to be short.  The afterglow from the big cut from the Fed lasted longer than expected.  Last week was some of the slowest, grinding, bleed higher markets that you will see.  The Chinese stimulus added to the feel good environment and you had a gap up all 5 days last week, a couple of them quite sizeable.  Nothing saps the soul of the bears more than feeling good after a regular trading hours selloff, only to see it all taken back effortlessly on light volume overnight.  While those gap ups tended to fade once the US market opened, you still ended up with an overall up week.  While the international markets are still focused on the positives of a Fed rate cut and the weaker dollar, the US market is less enthused.  Surprisingly, the Fed rate cuts have actually helped emerging markets and Europe more than the US. 

While most of the talk on finance TV is still about the repercussions of a super dovish Fed and a China pumping up stimulus, you can sense that the US market is starting to hesitate at this high level.  It seems the US stock market is moving on from the post event euphoria of the Fed going full dove and slowly focusing on the US election, which is still a 50-50 situation according to betting markets.  The market generally views a Trump victory as a positive for stocks, and a Harris victory as a negative for stock.  There should be some downside vol in the coming weeks as the focus shifts from monetary policy to potential fiscal policy over the next 4 years.  

The market is in agreement that both candidates will keep deficits high and the fiscal pump going, but Harris is viewed as one who will let the Trump tax cuts expire, at least for the rich and for corporations, which will be viewed as an equity negative.  She's even trying to increase the capital gains tax, but its doubtful that would pass a divided Congress, which is more likely than not if she wins.  The uncertainty of higher taxes looms over this market, which priced for near perfection at these valuations.  If Harris does somehow win the election, which I view as less than 10% chance, but still a chance, a reflexive selloff in the SPX is very likely.  Since I view a Harris victory as very unlikely, I will not be going into the election with a short position.  

But what I think is irrelevant.  The majority believe in the betting markets and think this election is a crapshoot.  And with heavy long positioning in SPX, I can picture a de-risking scenario in October to hedge against a potential Harris victory.  That's what's going to be the market's main concern over the next few weeks.  

The COT data for SPX futures as of September 24 showed a big jump in net long positioning among asset managers.  You saw nearly a similar increase in net short positioning among dealers.  Asset managers now have the biggest net long position in SPX futures YTD.  

SPX Futures Net Positions for Asset Mgrs and Dealers

 

In the past, when there was actually some caution and fear in the market, many asset managers used SPX futures to hedge their long exposure.  Now, with very few asset managers short the SPX futures, its completely changed.  SPX futures are now used as a quick way to add long US stock exposure, to add beta, and turbocharge returns without having to go to the trouble of stock picking, which most asset managers are bad at anyway.  This is more of a long term sell signal than a short term one.  But it tells you the environment that we're in, which is one of heavy long positioning, and very few shorts.  That is an environment that has led to sharp moves lower, such as Q3 of 2015, Q4 of 2018, Q1 of 2020, and Q1 of 2022.  

The OCC options data at the ISEE index last week showed a renewed interest in call buying, as we're back to low fear market.  Low volatility, new all time highs, and good news leads to more short term risk taking.  I won't put too much weight on this data, as its to be expected in this kind of environment.  But it does show how much traders are leaning to one side of the trade.  

The original plan last week was to trim my short position.  I canceled that plan because it looks like its too late to cover the short and microtrade, and I want to play for the pullback in October.  Do NOT want to miss any potential downside in October.  We've reached a level of complacency and one sided trading action which can go the other way quickly during this time of year.  October is not necessarily a bearish month.  But it tends to be bearish if you had a strong summer/September.  

Add to the the past seasonal tendencies with election uncertainty and there is a high probability trade to short the SPX over the coming weeks.  

The bond market also seems to be changing its focus from the Fed to the election.  You have seen persistent, calm selling in Treasuries since the FOMC announcement.  I don't think most bond investors want to be loading up on bonds ahead of a potential Trump victory.  After what happened to bonds after 2016 and 2020 elections, I expect further weakness in Treasuries in October, even if stocks go down. 

Staying short.  Its too late to cover.  I expect chop this week, and then a move lower starting sometime next week, lasting 2-3 weeks till mid to late October.  The market should move lower as the Fed goes into the rear view mirror and the election comes closer into view. 

Political Powell

I had a feeling that Powell was looking for 50 bps before the meeting when Nicky Leaks from the WSJ put out that article that took Fed Funds futures odds of 50 bps from less than 25% to over 50% for last week's meeting.  And when you consider how close the election is, and how much Powell wants to stop Trump from being elected, the motivation was there for Powell to try to squeeze the market higher with a 50 bps cut.  And it happened.  

Now you will have those who say that it wasn't political, that Powell was worried about the labor market.  But he could easily do a 25 bps cut, a 50 bps cut after the election, and get to the same place.  And he even hinted not to expect another 50 bps cut at the next meeting.  So why 50 bps before the election and then a 25 bps cut after?  Its smells like the Fed trying to tilt the election in one side's favor.  

And I really could care less if Trump or Harris wins.  Of course, if I had a position going into the election, I would want one side to win because it would help my position, but from a political point of view, I can't stand either side.

Powell is the most power hungry and political Fed chairman since Arthur Burns.  He's well known for talking to Senators on both sides, kissing ass, trying to gather support for his reappointment.  He did that in 2021 and 2022 before his reappointment.  His delayed reappointment in 2021 being pushed out to 2022 was the main reason he didn't raise rates even though inflation was raging higher during that time.  He didn't even hint at rate hikes.  He waited till after he was basically a lock to get reconfirmed by the Senate before he did his first rate cut in spring of 2022, and was way behind what STIRs market was pricing for rate hikes.  That cemented my previous belief that this guy is first and foremost a politician. 

Anyway, knowing how political Powell is, will help navigate and predict which way he will lean for the next 2 years before his next re-nomination by the next President in fall of 2026.  So basically, he will do whatever the stock market wants him to do, because that's what will make him the most popular.  Only if inflation is raging higher (has to be very high, at least 6-7% CPI) and a major concern for the President, he will lean on the hawkish side.  In all other cases, he will lean on the dovish side, because it helps him politically.  This makes it very likely that you will get a weaker dollar over the next 2 years, a steeper yield curve, and financial repression.  

For the bears out there, including me, you have to recognize that you will be fighting the Fed in the next bear market, and you need to embrace it.  Shorts were fighting Greenspan all the way from the start of 2001 to the middle of 2003.   And that was still a great time to be a short seller.  The most important things for being short, in order, are:  1. earnings growth rate 2. investor positioning and psychology 3. valuations.  Then would come fiscal policy and monetary policy in that order.  Only in exceptional circumstances like Covid, government policy becomes the most important thing.  But those are rare circumstances, and usually happen only in "crisis" situations, when the equity markets are already down a lot.  

Over the next few months, especially if the stock market is going higher, you will hear talk about "don't fight the Fed", Fed put, Fed is supporting the market, etc.  That is what builds optimism during an economic slowdown.  The bulls are down to what they believe is their most reliable bullet.  But it's their last bullet.  The Fed.  But monetary policy is not what it used to be.  In an era of fiscal dominance, the huge national debt serves to provide a tremendous amount of interest income when rates are higher.  So rate cuts would actually reduce that Treasury interest income.  In addition, since a majority of mortgages are already paying very low interest rates, mortgage re-financings will have a much weaker effect than previous rate cutting cycles.  Lastly, corporate borrowing will likely be done at higher rates than 5 and 10 years ago, so debt rollovers will not be stimulative, even as rates go down.  

Last week's 50 bps cut has re-ignited the soft landing view as markets reacted with bonds selling off and equities rallying.  Don't have a strong macro view, but I would lean towards economic weakness over economic strength over the next 12 months.  However, I do think that there will be a post election bump higher in economic activity and optimism with the election out of the way and with Trump likely to be the winner.  But even a Trump victory won't make much difference as this economic weakness appears to be a lagged effect from a lack of money supply growth and bank lending over the past 2 years.  That should continue well into 2025 and probably ensures the Fed panicking with more big rate cuts sometime next year.  

Investor positioning is low on cash, very low on short positions, and high on long positions.  Here is the cash allocation according to BofA.  This is much lower than one would expect when cash is yielding over 5%.  You had lower cash levels in the mid 2000s (housing bubble) and early 2010s (cash yields were 0%).  Other than that, the current cash levels are the lowest in the past 25 years.  Even during the height of the dotcom bubble, the cash levels didn't get below 5%.  This is just further evidence that there is a lot of downside fuel once the stock uptrend turns into a downtrend. 

Back to the market.  SPX futures COT data last week as of September 17 showed asset managers increased to their longest net long positioning since February 2020.  Back in early 2020, SPX futures open interest was averaging around 3,000,000 contracts.  For the past few weeks, SPX futures open interest is only averaging around 2,200,000 contracts.  On a net % of OI basis, the net long positioning is much greater now than back in Feb.  2020.  After the rally post FOMC, I expect the asset manager net longs to be even higher currently. 

The weekly OCC options data over the weekend was a bit of a disappointment.  I was expecting much more call buying and much fewer puts opened relative to calls opened, but that didn't happen.  Last week saw quite a bit of put buying, which appears to be those that are looking to hedge over the next several weeks and into the election.  When investors are well hedged, downside is more limited.  So it makes it less likely that you will see a big selloff in September and October.  It appears that the most downside one can expect over the next 6 weeks is SPX 5400.  Base case now is probably a pullback down towards 5450-5500 sometime in October, and then a strong rally from late October into the end of the year.  

Still have a heavy SPX short position, looking for seasonal weakness as well as bit of the Fed euphoria to cool off this week, post opex.  But given the put buying last week, I don't expect any big selloffs quite yet.  We'll need to rebuild some more complacency if we are to get a big selloff.  It could happen over the next 2 weeks if the economic data comes in stronger than expected, especially if there is a benign nonfarm payrolls report.  Current plan is to cover half later this week, and hold the rest of the short looking for a bigger move lower in October. 

Turning Defensive

Things changed dramatically in July.  While you hear a lot of talk of a soft landing and limited economic weakness, the price action in the stock market tells otherwise.  Maybe there is something to this economic slowdown that is being underestimated by investors, as they remain heavily invested in stocks. 

The SPX is back to mid July levels above 5600, but underneath the surface, investors have been moving from offensive sectors to defensive sectors.  This can be measured by the performance of low beta, defensive sectors such as consumer staples (XLP) and health care (XLV) vs. the Nasdaq 100, filled with high beta tech stocks.  During the past 3 months, the QQQ is flat but the XLP is up over 10% and XLV is up over 7%. 

This coincides with the AI peak that we saw in late June/early July, when NVDA went over $140.  Looking back, it is becoming more and more clear that the AI hype reached its peak this summer, and will unlikely reach that same level of mania even if the SPX goes to new all time highs later this year.  

This sector rotation, with many defensive stocks reaching 52 week highs, and many economically sensitive stocks reaching 52 week lows, as the SPX trades above the 50 day moving average, has fired off a few Hindenburg Omen signals last week.  A cluster of signals gives a strong warning of a looming correction.  A lot of people ridicule this indicator, but it has a much better than random track record of identifying short term market tops.  The last signal was in mid July, correctly warning of an impending selloff.  

Getting more and more 2000 vibes as this year plays out.  In early 2000, semiconductors were the hottest sector, even hotter than internet stocks.  We reached a similar level of semiconductor/AI mania this past summer.  Here is a chart of the SPX and Nasdaq Composite in 2000.  While the Nasdaq topped out in March 2000, the SPX lingered close to the highs for a few months until September 2000, before both indices went down in a vicious bear market in the final quarter of the year.  

Year 2000 SPX vs Nasdaq

Similar to 2000, you have very high allocations to equities as a percentage of total assets.  We are at late 2021 levels of equity allocations as of the end of June.  Even at the peak in 2000, you never got to these nosebleed equity allocations, and that's when everyone was talking about stocks.  Stocks are almost viewed as a no-brainer investment over bonds over the long run.  Of course, that's with average valuations, not coming from a point when stock valuations are around the highest in its history. 

Let's not forget about aging demographics in the developed world.  The baby boomers hold a huge chunk of the equities owned by households, and their current age range (born 1946 to 1964) is from 60 to 78.  The developed world was much younger in 2000.  Now you will have baby boomers disposing of equities due to either death (inheritance taxes/spending inheritance will lead to stock sales), elder care/nursing homes (selling stocks for cash), allocation shifts from stocks to bonds to reduce risk, etc.  

On the economy, this is just my 15 minute macro take, so not to be taken too seriously.  But could it be that the lack of money supply growth since 2022 is finally having an effect on the economy? No one talks about the money supply anymore, but it hasn't grown at a rate that's consistent with a strong economy.  Of course, a lot of that is payback from the crazy jump higher in 2022 in 2020 and 2021, but inflation already reflects that jump higher in M2.  So low money supply growth in a slowing economy with less fiscal impulse should result in a weaker economy.  M2 money supply grew 5-6% from 2010 to 2019, and growth was slow during that time period.  

And the distribution of the money is different now than it was before 2020.  Sure the pie is bigger with all the money printed, but the percentage distribution is even more skewed towards the wealthy, who have more money than they know what to do with.  The wealth inequality continues to expand.  Corporations and the wealthy have so much political power with all the money they spend on lobbying and donations, they shape regulations and tax rules that favor further wealth accumulation.  In the end, unbridled crony capitalism ends up with something that you see in a place like Russia, where a small group of government officials and oligarchs hold all the country's wealth, and the rest of the population are basically wage slaves. 

The Commitments of Traders data for SPX futures continues to show asset managers remain near all time highs in net long positioning, as they hardly budged during the selloff in the first week of September.  As a percentage of open interest, in the third quarter of 2024, asset managers have never had greater net long positioning in its history.  Mainly due to a reduction of short positions.  Fund managers are extremely lightly hedged.  Along with the SPY and QQQ short interest data that I wrote about in July, you have all the ingredients for the start of a long bear market. 

On Friday, you finally saw call buying come back, with the total put/call ratio falling to 0.68.  Also seeing signs of Twitter traders re-embrace the bull side, and wanting to be positioned bullishly ahead of the Fed's first rate cut of this cycle on Wednesday.  Given that quarterly opex is this Friday, and with election uncertainty about to come on stage, I expect a bearish post opex week.  The Street will want to re-add put hedges that come off on the Friday expiration, and/or sell stocks to get back to lower net long positioning.  Investors will not have much tolerance for market weakness due to how lightly hedged they are.  You got a preview of that in the first week of September, when the SPX fell 240 points over 4 trading days.  

In the bond market, you continue to see strength, and the bullishness is palpable.  Its almost taken as fact that bonds will rally when the Fed cuts rates.  That may be true for short term T-notes, but definitely not true for long bonds.  The monster budget deficit will need to be funded with lots of bond issuance.  The 1982 to 2020 bond bull market was fueled by labor arbitrage to China, reducing manufacturing costs, faster CPUs leading to rapid productivity growth, growing globalization increasing free trade, and gradually decreasing budget deficits as a percentage of GDP for much of that time period.  You have the opposite now, with budget deficits exploding higher, as well as an aging demographic, reducing the working age population / total population ratio, which contributes to higher services inflation.  

In the short term, bonds will face headwinds due to election uncertainty and the potential for more tax cuts and/or fiscal stimulus.  Both candidates are free spenders and could care less about controlling fiscal deficits.  Populism is inflationary, and politics worldwide (except China) has never been more populist than now. 

Did not expect that the market would give me another chance to short around the August highs but here we are.  Admittedly, I was a bit too eager to start shorting, jumping the gun by shorting last Thursday, before the SPX squeezed higher later in the day and on Friday.  One could argue that weak markets don't give you a lot of time to short the highs.  That is usually true, but markets that are transitioning from a bull market to a bear market exhibit some bull market tendencies while the market tops out.  It appears that we are in that transition phase as the stock market goes from bull market to bear market.  This is based on investor positioning data, equity valuations, and price action.  

Could the market get even bubblier and make a blowoff top (SPX 6000+) into year end? Its possible, but I would give it less than 25% odds.  And even if it were to do so, I would expect most of that blowoff move to happen in November, when I would loathe being short.  In fact, I would actually welcome a blowoff top, even though its unlikely to happen.  

I see too many viewing the Fed as a backstop to support this weakening economy despite monetary policy losing a lot of its potency.  When you take away the refinancing option for the vast majority of home owners who are on very low fixed rates, that reduces a lot of the monetary stimulus provided by lower rates.  Same goes for corporations, many who are locked in at lower rates, and will be re-issuing at higher rates even with Fed rate cuts, since bond yields now are much higher than 5 and 10 years ago.

Fed rate cuts reduce interest income, a big source of cash going straight from the Treasury to households.  When you have such a huge US national debt, oddly enough, interest rate cuts can actually reduce income for a substantial portion of the population, as well as for banks.  Remember, the US Treasury funds interest payouts not by reducing spending, or increasing taxes, but by issuing more Treasuries.  So reducing interest payments with a lower Fed funds rate is actually a fiscal contraction, not an expansion for the government. 

Will the Fed go 25 bps or 50 bps at the upcoming meeting?  Based on the leak from Nick of WSJ on Thursday, Powell is itching to cut 50 bps to pump up the stock market, to increase the chances of Trump losing.  He can force his way to cut 50 bps with dissents and that will reduce the power of his pump attempt, and look bad, but he also doesn't seem to have full support for 50 bps among the committee because it looks so blatantly political.  Powell wants to get 50 bps with no dissents, having his cake and eating it too, but not so sure the rest of the committee will agree to let him have his way with inflation not slowing down fast enough and with economic data that doesn't warrant a 50 bps cut at this point.  

Either way, 25 bps or 50 bps, it will be forgotten by Friday, and it will be on to more pressing issues, such as the upcoming election as well as the newly feared data release of the month, nonfarm payrolls.  

Looking to add to shorts today or tomorrow, to play for a correction over the next few weeks.  Seasonal weakness coincides with corporate buyback blackout period starting this week, and the big triple witching options expiration this Friday.  Add the November election to the mix.  Its looking like a coin toss according to election betting markets and the uncertainty will likely lead to some volatility soon. 

Missing Opportunities

Last week was a classic example of the downside of waiting for the exquisite opportunity.  The opportunity can just pass you by.  The bus can leave the station before you expected.  There are no guarantees in the market, unexpected things happen, which is what keeps people coming back to the biggest casino in the world.  If the casino always won, the players would never come back.  But the players sometimes win, which is what keeps them coming back.  Unexpected things happening in the market = players winning in the casino.  They happen much less than 50% of the time, but they happen often enough that the gamblers and speculators keep coming back to play.   In the long run, the casino wins.  But in the short run, the players sometimes have their moment in the sun, basking in their wins.  

Its not often that you see a feared event, the nonfarm payrolls report last Friday, in a bull market, actually deliver on the fear and scare investors enough to force them to sell heavily both before and after the event.  That's what you saw last week, and its not common.  Quite a few unusual things have happened in the past few weeks, which makes the market trickier than usual.  

You first had a V bottom off the August 5th low, even though the market was in a seasonally weak time of year, and was super overextended in July before dropping into early August.  Usually such overextended positioning and excessive bullishness gets worked off by the market trading in a choppy, lower range, not a V bottom off a mini panic low, that takes it quickly towards the previous highs.  The market managed to both squeeze the early short sellers and also crush the late long buyers in the past 3 weeks.  Its been an uncomfortable market for both the bulls and the bears.  

You are hearing a lot of talk about September being a seasonally weak time of year for the stock market, while its selling off.  While I agree with the crowd about September likely to be weak, you have a late quarterly options expiration this month, with opex on September 20.  So there are still 2 weeks left till the big expiration.  Still plenty of time to reverse the current down move.   In bull markets, stocks usually don't sell off hard before triple witching opex (quarterly opex).  The pattern is one of strength up to middle of quarterly opex week, and then weakness starting from opex day extending to post opex week.  The reason for this pattern is because many of the longer term options hedging is done in the quarterly expirations, which have the most liqudity and biggest open interest.  Thus, you get a build up of a lot of put hedges that provide downside protection for investors until opex, at which point investors are again more lightly hedged and more likely to sell stocks/buy puts instead of just holding on to their positions.  

The downside put protection is still there, and there are still almost 2 weeks till expiration, so there is definitely room for stocks to bounce in the pre-opex window.  But as you get closer to that quarterly opex, the less support there will be.  The FOMC meeting is on September 18, so I don't expect a huge down move before that event, especially with opex still to come after the Fed.  So there is a window of about a week where we can see a countertrend bounce, which would be a good opportunity to short SPX.  

Bigger picture, beyond September, the positioning is looking unfavorable for longs.  The COT data as of September 4, which covers the period when SPX went down approximately 100 points, the asset managers went nowhere, and held their heavily net long exposure.  On the other hand, leveraged funds covered a big chunk of their short position.  While asset managers are the best fades in the COT data, the leveraged funds are also a bit of a fade, as they are usually the least short before a long downtrend begins (e.g. Dec. 2021).  Dealers also added to shorts into a down tape, which is a bearish signal.  Overall, its looking grim for the bulls for the next few weeks. 

The options data was mixed last week, you did see a pick up in put buying and the put/call ratio, but the levels are not extreme, and nothing that would signal a significant bottom.  This supports the view that any bounce should be minor, and that there is further to go in the selloff that started last Tuesday.  By the time we reach a low for this selloff, probably sometime in late September/early October, the bearishness will likely exceed that of early August, and it will likely be a sloppy bottom, more like a U than a V.  

The continued underperformance of the Nasdaq 100 vs the SPX is an ominous sign for the long term prospects for this bull market.  Bull markets feed off of an increase in risk appetite, a desire for high beta equities, not a search for low beta equity exposure.  Since the October 2022 bottom, up until the July 2024 top, the Nasdaq 100 was the leader, outperforming the SPX throughout.  Due to both superior earnings growth and AI hype.  That has changed dramatically over the past 2 months.  The current Nasdaq 100 underperformance is similar to what you witnessed in the latter parts of 2021 and first half of 2022.  That was a bad time to be long equities.  

While the economic situation is quite different now than in late 2021, one thing is similar.  The sky high household asset allocation to equities vs other asset classes.  That is one of the single best predictors of long term equity returns.  Compared to 2021, the earnings outlook is poorer now due to the lack of money supply growth vs 3 years ago, as well as the nearing maturity wall of corporate debt coming due in 2025 and 2026.  The average yield on corporate debt outstanding is much higher now than in 2021, while the money supply growth is slower.  Fiscal deficits are also lower as a percentage of GDP now than vs 3 years ago.  This is mainly due to the absense of some of the Covid stimulus, which is the gift that keeps giving, but at a slower rate now than before. 

Overall, this is a more bearish long term set up than late 2021.  Not only will earnings growth be slower over the next 3 years than from 2022 to 2024, the baby boomer population will be shrinking leading to net selling of stocks from that demographic.  2025 will be quite the contrast from 2023 and 2024.  It may be a bit of a shock to those with short memories and a permabull mentality.  

We are getting a big gap up off the "scary" selloff on Friday, that gave investors flashbacks to August 2, and the possibility of a manic panic Monday post NFP.  Alas, that selling was front run by risk management teams at the funds and it appears that the first wave of this selloff is finished.  I expect more waves of selling to continue in the weeks ahead but the pre quarterly opex forces should be supportive this week.  Any bounces above 5500 up to 5550 will be good spots to put on short positions.  Waiting for the opportunity. 

On the Battlefield

There are various weapons used on the battlefield.  Same applies for the markets.  There are times where leverage is useful, and times when its too risky.  You can divide it into 3 main types:  cash instruments (stocks, bonds), futures, and options.  There is a time and place for each type.  In general, the higher the conviction on future price movements, the more leverage one should utilize.  Leverage is a double edge sword.  It amplifies volatility, which is a negative more often than a positive.  Excess volatilty without a big edge is a long term drag on returns.  

Let’s get down to the main reason why people use leverage.  Its to get rich quick.  On Reddit, you usually see traders post their P&L after big wins.  Sometimes after small wins.  But rarely after losses, big or small.  So what people see on social media is a distorted view of trading.  You see traders post a lot of big wins, some small wins, and very few losses.   Big wins are glorified.  Losses are not mentioned and ignored.   Other traders see this, get FOMO, try to replicate those big wins by betting bigger through leverage.  The most popular form these days is to be long shorter dated options that have low premiums but lots of gamma.  Of course, there is a steep price for that gamma.  Its in extremely fast theta burn, or time decay.  Dramatically lowering the odds of winning.

Its hard enough to pick the right direction.  With options, you add another layer of difficulty by trying to predict when that move happens.  The shorter the expiration, the smaller the time window you have for that move to happen.  If the moves doesn’t happen before expiry, your option ends up worthless.  A 100% loss on investment.  If you go all in on options, you only need to be wrong once to be wiped out.  Even if you don’t go all in, just going in more than 20% with each option trade will eventually whittle down your account to dust.  

It seems obvious, but avoiding big losses is the number one priority as a speculator.  Everything else is a distant second.  You cannot treat all losses the same.  But a lot of traders do.  Traders hate losses.  That’s just evolutionary conditioning.  A small loss of 2% that happens ten times in a row will be way more tilting and annoying than one 30% loss, but you have to take those small losses even if they make you feel bad.  You don’t necessarily take small losses because you are wrong.  You take small losses to prevent them from becoming big losses.  

The best way to give your trades room to work (wider stops) and still have small losses is to trade small.  But most people who are attracted to trading are not interested in grinding it out by playing small ball.  And I don’t mean small ball in the form of daytrading for small wins to try to make money every day.  I mean trading longer time frames with smaller size to keep losses small, to reduce the volatility of your account balance.  That is what’s necessary for long term winning.  Not slinging huge size for quick, big scores.  

Let’s compare trading to war.  As there are various weapons of war, there are various ways to express a trade.  

Here is a list from least leverage to most leverage:  

Cash instruments (stocks, bonds, commodities)

Futures

Options (Shorter expiration = more leverage)

Here is a list from least risky to most risky: 

Cash

Treasuries (longer maturity = more risky)

Corporate Bonds

Stocks and Commodities

Cash = ammo, unloaded guns, unloaded missile systems

Bonds = defensive instruments: anti missile system, mines

Stocks = machine guns, grenades, bazookas

Futures = artillery, drones, glide bombs

Options = bunker buster bombs, tactical nukes

I see too many traders trade options like its a machine gun rather than the big bombs/tactical nukes that they are.  Options markets have the widest bid ask spread and most slippage of the major trading instruments.  They are costly to trade.  They are more appropriate for high probability special situations and intermediate term trades that last from 1-4 weeks.  They are not appropriate for day trades or even swing trades.  But I see way more traders use options for quick trades than longer term moves.

Futures and stocks are more similar except for the leverage available.  Futures give you more firepower if you want to use it.  Futures are the most liquid and flexible trading products out there.  Futures have much less slippage and lower trading costs than options.  So those wanting to day trade or play for short term moves are better off trading futures than options.  In most cases, futures are the best way to express a trading view.  

Within the options space, there are various strategies that range from low risk to super high risk.  Contrary to what they say, shorting options is not riskier than being long options.  Given the much higher margin requirements for shorting options, you just won’t be able to put on nearly the same size as you can being long options.  That’s why most retail traders trade options from the long side, because of the much higher leverage and size they can put on.  Its the lotto mentality.  You can only make as much as the premium you  sell when you short options.  But being long options, you pay the premium to have much greater potential upside.  Like a lotto ticket.  But just like lotto tickets, the odds are almost always against you.  

Not all options trading is negative EV, but the most popular ways of trading options are negative EV.  Most retail options speculators are not putting on spread positions.  They are putting on naked long options positions playing for a quick up or down move.

There are options spreads which mitigate some of the negative EV of just being long options, like put or call spreads, calendar spreads, etc.  In most cases, its better to be long put spreads than long puts.  The same cannot be said for call spreads because OTM calls are usually underpriced, while OTM puts are usually overpriced.  The reason is that investors like to sell covered calls (selling OTM calls against underlying position) and buy puts (hedge against market downside), regardless of price.  

Bottom line, in most cases, buying options is like being the player at the casino.   Selling options is like being the dealer at the casino.  But there are special cases and exceptions where options are too cheap, but its usually not short dated options, but longer dated options that are underestimating long term volatility.  

Back to the current markets.  Last week was uneventful, with sideways chop.  The big event was NVDA, and it ended up being a bit of a dud, not what bulls were looking for, as most of the weekly calls evaporated into nothing.  And it wasn't much of a winner for bears, as the stock only went down a few percent, less than the implied vol of the ATM puts.  So most of the put buyers also lost money trying to play for downside on NVDA earnings.  The only real winners in the options trades last week were the market makers who made out like bandits, with NVDA calls and puts both losing a lot of their value post earnings.  

The COT report released on Friday showed a continuation of the trend of asset managers adding to net longs.  This time, small speculators added a lot to their already sizeable net long positions, bring them back up to near their highest levels of the year.  

The systematic traders also were likely adding long exposure as the vol control funds will have slowly been adding to stocks as volatility dies down, and the 30 day look back period replaces volatile late July moves with much less volatile late August moves.  The CTA fund that I track has also added a bit to their S&P 500 longs last week.  

In the options market, I continue to see more complacency with low put/call ratios and less put hedging.  The options players are not leaning as bullish as they did in early/mid July, but still quite bullish overall.  

Got short bonds on Friday for a short term trade.  With SPX back near all time highs and recent economic reports coming in better than expectations, there is a window for weakness for the bond market.  The price action also looks heavy considering the weakness after a very dovish Powell at Jackson Hole, and a run of the mill GDP report last Thursday.  Also, leveraged funds massively covered shorts from August 20 to 27, which should alleviate a lot of potential buying pressure from fast money players. Not looking for anything big, just a pullback after an extended up move over the past 4 months. 

For the stock indices, it takes time for the trauma from a sharp down move and big VIX spike to fade away.  As August 5 goes further into the rearview without any big moves, investors feel more emboldened and confident in the continuation of the bull market.  That sets up an opportunity heading into a seasonally weak time period of the year, mid September to mid October.  

Just from looking at the price action last week, while the market was basically flat from the start to close of the week, you had quite a bit of intraday volatility.  This tells me that there is not a huge underlying bid to this market, as the first sign of a lack of a steady bid is higher intraday vol.  HFTs are very adept at sensing big buyers and big sellers laying in the weeds.  If they sense that there are no big buyers, they will not provide much liquidity, and you will see quick dumps of 20-30 SPX points on little volume.  That happened quite a few times last week despite SPX going nowhere.  A sign of weakness underneath the surface. 

There seems to just be one more hurdle left for the bulls to clear before they regain full confidence in this unstoppable bull market.  That is the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, September 6.  I expect latecomer bulls to buy after the report, good or bad, as there is still some lingering fear about economic weakness.  Once that uncertainty clears, and if we are at all time highs, that could be the time to put on shorts.  Need to see how this week plays out and how the market trades going into and out of that report.  The more intraday volatility, the better the signal will be to fade a rally.