The short squeeze is back on. What a market. The volatility remains intense, both going up and down. But the bounce up off the Thursday intraday bottom has been led by small caps, not the Nasdaq 100. The Russell 2000 futures is up 5.6% as I write, while the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.9%. That is a huge change of character for this market which has been led by Nasdaq 100 stocks.
The buying in the momentum big cap stocks looks exhausted, and the money is flowing to the laggard small caps. The US stock market will only go as high as MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, and AMZN will take it. The market cap of those 5 stocks combined is over $5 trillion. They are THE stock market. And they have been underperforming the past 3 days. It is still a bit too early to say that they will start lagging now, but the most popular hedge fund trade is still long Nasdaq 100, short Russell 2000. If that trade starts to go bad, I have a hard time imagining the broader market to sustain a rally.
Let's see how the hedgies react to their long/short positions going against them in the coming days, if they can't get their favorites to outperform anymore, that's probably the sign that the buying in those names is completely saturated, and the Nasdaq 100 is topping out.
I have added some shorts this morning on the big gap up, will add some more if we rally more in the middle of the week.
I agree that fb googl aapl are approaching double or triple tops but there is no saying that they wont break those tops. Also realistically amzn looks like its about to break out from this base at 2450.
ReplyDeleteAlso you can say that hedgies will start sector rotating out of qqq stocks and into xlf stocks and iwm stocks.
Market has come up along way and i believe we need to take a breather here with a .5 to 1 percent correction tmrw but i think thats just a chance for shorts to cover. I think were going to 3150 for real this time
Sold ddd short bby
ReplyDeleteSo much good news: MRNA coronavirus 100% cure, Friday we had SRNE's coronavirus 100% cure, and now talks of a eurobond. It's so bright, gotta wear shades! Gut tells me this is another good news top, coinciding with SPX resistance at 2950-2980. And QQQs underperforming while the crowd gets euphoric. As Gekko would say: dump it.
ReplyDeleteI agree we are setting up for a strong pullback but i think its thursday or friday of this week. I think a stock like wfc has to go to at least 26 to 27 before shit goes south again. Ultimately though it needs to go to 30. 10 million worth of calls on mrna. Like thats gotta be a huge chunk of the niggas net worth to be betting on something like that. As the head of r and d for glaxo smith kline im sure he knows infinitely more than your average stocktwits piker
ReplyDeleteDawg if mkt holds over 2950 today i dont think its going to pullback tmrw. I think we may low vol rig it up to 3000 by thursday.
ReplyDeleteSold my wfc and covered by bby. Longed w at 151.5 for daytrade. Then get back in wfc
Sold W 154.34.
ReplyDeleteShort half position bby holding overnite. Dont want to hold long. Dont want to max hold short
ReplyDeleteCovered bby flat
ReplyDeleteLong 1500 wfc. Adding more in any weakness tmrw
ReplyDeleteLong 3000 jblu 8.95
ReplyDeleteSold wfc sold 1700 jblu. Holding 1300 jblu overnite
ReplyDeletelong roku 119 wfc 24.93
ReplyDeletesold roku 117.5
ReplyDeletesold wfc 24.8
ReplyDeleteshort ayx 139.83
ReplyDeletecovered ayx 139.01
ReplyDeletelong kss 17.13
ReplyDeleteSpy 300 this week incoming.
ReplyDeleteSold kss 17.28
ReplyDeleteLong wfc 24.95. Holding
ReplyDeleteShort luv 28.42
ReplyDeleteCovered luv 28.15
ReplyDeleteLong acb 14.37
ReplyDeleteSold acb 14.98
ReplyDeleteI had 4000 kss at 17.13 lol
ReplyDeleteFda softens stance on hydrochloroquoxine (sp).
ReplyDeleteMost people think DJT is a fool. The reality is most people are the fool. Do not discount anything this guy says. Everything said and done is calculated and has a purpose. Most things he says turn out to be true.
Long more wfc 24.50
ReplyDeleteLong 10 spy 229 sep puts 14.9
ReplyDeleteTrump is a fool. You overthinking it, believing he is some master strategist. He got lucky facing a woman in 2016, any male would have soundly beaten him in the last election. US still has a strong bias against female leaders, plus Hillary was a weak uninspirational candidate,
ReplyDeleteAir pockets in this market. Wow, that was a quick 25 point SPX drop out of the blue on nothing. We are topping this week, last graceful exit opportunity for longs before grind lower into the fall.
Trump is way smarter than present but not there sleepy joe the king of the nursing home.
ReplyDeleteYeah we could pull back which is why i picked up some puts. Wfc going to 30 by the summer
Short luv 27.75
ReplyDeleteWhy aren't we tanking dawg. Spooz up .67% wtf.
ReplyDeleteCovered luv 28.65
ReplyDeletelong wfc 24.44
ReplyDeletesold qqq puts 14.20
ReplyDeletelong acb 13.09
ReplyDeletesold wfc 24.60
ReplyDeleteclearly breaking out of the range now for spx. Maybe 307 now. Not in a straight line but pullbacks will be small until we get there imo
ReplyDeleteshort luv 28.93
ReplyDeletecovered luv 29.19. one of them days.
ReplyDeleteSold acb 13.20.
ReplyDeleteShort luv 29.09
ReplyDelete