tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1715439530278924605.post3447788638990952915..comments2024-03-21T12:05:18.715-04:00Comments on Market Owl: Length of Pullback is EverythingMarket Owlhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18136766420445585120noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1715439530278924605.post-48144051893714048522015-01-07T15:12:21.697-05:002015-01-07T15:12:21.697-05:00You are getting in deep shorting Treasuries right ...You are getting in deep shorting Treasuries right now. Treasuries often go up whether stock market goes up or down. Today being an example. Anyway, I think you are better off going long SPY calls than going long TBT. Its sort of the same trade, except much better odds.<br /><br />I think market goes back down, and big, in the coming days. SPX 1960 beckons.Market Owlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18136766420445585120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1715439530278924605.post-38279966451749949882015-01-07T15:00:40.685-05:002015-01-07T15:00:40.685-05:00That was a little scary, TBT went negative. I thi...That was a little scary, TBT went negative. I think it will base around these levels and 10 year rates also base around these levels. For a couple of days and then sell off. Bond's had a huge rally and it's not rational to expect the trend to keep going non stop. Fed did say they will raise rates. Fed always does what they say.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1715439530278924605.post-55829000047892898422015-01-07T13:53:38.712-05:002015-01-07T13:53:38.712-05:00Yeah but you're not looking for jobs in the US...Yeah but you're not looking for jobs in the US though. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1715439530278924605.post-90620308234609814042015-01-07T13:50:10.080-05:002015-01-07T13:50:10.080-05:00ADP is backward looking, their forecasts are alway...ADP is backward looking, their forecasts are always high when you have a good jobs number the month before, and bad when you have a bad jobs number the month before.<br /><br />https://twitter.com/IanShepherdson<br /><br />He knows all about the ADP BS. It is nearly worthless as a NFP forecast.Market Owlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18136766420445585120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1715439530278924605.post-82375955659634525212015-01-07T13:47:59.715-05:002015-01-07T13:47:59.715-05:00I am playing an extension on this monster trend of...I am playing an extension on this monster trend of lower yields, it will end with a bang when stocks go back to test the 200 day moving average at SPX 1960. It looks like a one day rally and back down to more weakness tomorrow. The Germany/Greece rumors are helping to keep a bid under this market. Tomorrow should bring back the sellers.Market Owlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18136766420445585120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1715439530278924605.post-1154767245571874842015-01-07T13:45:07.917-05:002015-01-07T13:45:07.917-05:00ADP beat payrolls, why should NFP not beat as well...ADP beat payrolls, why should NFP not beat as well. What slowed us down? Not the weather, not high transportation costs. Look on monster and craigslist. Tons of jobs available in big cities right now. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1715439530278924605.post-75495424346777154672015-01-07T13:43:39.973-05:002015-01-07T13:43:39.973-05:00Flattening of yield curve foretells a bad economy ...Flattening of yield curve foretells a bad economy ahead and unchanged fed funds rate in the middle of the year. Bond buyers may be right that rates won't rise in the middle of the year but they're wrong about the economy getting bad and they're wrong about oil staying low forever. I think Fed will pull the trigger in the 2H because oil will be up by then and rear view mirror will show a good 1H economy because of low oil and low interest rates causing homebuying. <br /><br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1715439530278924605.post-30683911173312343802015-01-07T13:38:27.050-05:002015-01-07T13:38:27.050-05:00I will probably get long bonds ahead of the non fa...I will probably get long bonds ahead of the non farm payrolls on Friday. The expectations are high as usual for the jobs number, and the market is set up for disappointment. I would get out of any bond shorts ahead of the number. <br /><br />SPX looks soggy here, I have changed my strategy to short the rips, and we have a rip today. I will get short either at close or at tomorrow's open. Market Owlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18136766420445585120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1715439530278924605.post-16992731836216324262015-01-07T13:35:12.749-05:002015-01-07T13:35:12.749-05:00Non farm payrolls are gonna be fat as signaled by ...Non farm payrolls are gonna be fat as signaled by ADP. Low oil means more trucking and more transporting of shit around the economy. Lack of bad weather helped as well. Jobs are definitely out there.<br /><br />Fed will maintain language signaling a tightening of loose monetary policy. <br /><br />Say bye bye to sub 2% 10 year yield for now. Market will bounce back to spx 2050. Oil back to 55 on this bounce. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com